Will Bitcoin's 2026 Conference Experience a Major Crypto Crash?

From Euphoria to Calm: Market Sentiment Takes a Sharp Turn

Remember early 2025? Bitcoin’s price soared all the way up, investors enthusiastically discussed the U.S. government establishing strategic reserves, ETFs being continuously bought, and listed companies accumulating coins. Everything seemed so promising.

Fast forward to the end of the year, and the story has completely changed. BTC fell from a high of $120,000 to $80,000, now hovering around $88.73K, with an annual decline of -10.63%. The once overwhelming optimism has vanished, replaced by a market filled with concern—Is Bitcoin really finished? Will there be a real crypto crash in 2026?

Leverage Enthusiasts Drive Volatility, a Black Swan Could Collapse the Market

The root cause of all this, frankly, is market sentiment. Those optimistic about Bitcoin as “digital gold” for its safe-haven value buy in; those bearish sell out. The problem is, in the first half of 2025, too many traders used extreme leverage.

Some crypto trading platforms offered up to 50x leverage, meaning you only needed to invest 1 dollar to control a 50-dollar position. When the market moves in your favor, profits multiply; when it moves against you, your account can instantly explode.

This was proven by what happened this fall: Trump suddenly announced tariffs on China, causing panic selling, and BTC plummeted from $120,000 to $80,000 in a short period. Traders using leverage triggered margin calls, forcing exchanges to liquidate customer assets, which further accelerated the decline, creating a vicious cycle.

The current issue is that many leveraged positions still exist in the system, like a ticking time bomb ready to explode.

Price Targets Are Flying Around, But They’re All “Bullshit”

Open any financial media outlet, and you’ll see Bitcoin price predictions: some say it will rise to $1 million per coin (with a market cap of $21 trillion), others say it will drop to zero.

But most of these predictions are nonsense. Why? Because these forecasts are often highly aligned with the interests of the predictors. Analysts holding Bitcoin will give bullish targets; those betting against it will say it’s doomed. The same data, different stances, lead to completely opposite conclusions.

Price targets are produced daily, but the chances of hitting them precisely are minimal. They more reflect the predictor’s appetite than the market’s true direction.

What Does Historical Data Tell Us?

Looking back at Bitcoin’s history over the past 10 years, there have been at least 3 major crashes. This means that in any given year, Bitcoin has roughly a 30% chance of experiencing a sharp decline.

In other words, this thing is extremely risky. Crashes are part of the norm, not anomalies. In 2026, Bitcoin might have another crypto crash, or it might suddenly take off. No one can guarantee either way.

The key point is that Bitcoin has no fundamental support for its value (no profits, no cash flow); it relies entirely on consensus. Coupled with the market’s rampant leverage positions, extreme volatility becomes the only certainty.

The Real Question Investors Should Ask

Instead of obsessing over “Will it crash in 2026,” investors should ask themselves: Do I truly believe in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value?

If the answer is yes, then the current price correction might be a good opportunity to accumulate. If the answer is no, then no amount of analysis will change that.

The bottom line is: your attitude toward Bitcoin should be based on your long-term outlook, not short-term price fluctuations. Volatility will always exist—that’s the essence of the crypto market. Accepting this is key to making more rational decisions.