Let's talk about whether there will be a mini bull market in 2026 and how likely it is.

Just looking at historical K-line charts? Most likely, 2026 will be a deep bear market that hasn't ended. The correction amplitudes over the past four-year cycles are evident: a 58% drop in 2014 (clearing out the 2013 frenzy), a 73% drop in 2018 (cleaning up the 2017 ICO mess), and a 64% drop in 2022 (settling the 2021 DeFi bubble). Following this pattern, Bitcoin in 2026 could fall into the $40,000–$50,000 range, with altcoins facing about 95% wipeout in fundamentals.

But there are variables. The market has quietly changed.

Now there are ETFs, and institutions are allocating. Structural changes are irreversible. Large funds like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds will continuously and passively invest at key support levels, even during downturns. $BTC is unlikely to experience the sharp crashes like in 2022—this is the power of institutional participation.

The macro environment is also completely different. Both 2018 and 2022 were in rate hike and balance sheet reduction cycles, with liquidity tightening severely. In 2026? A totally different story. U.S. debt interest payments are expected to soar; estimates suggest that by 2026, interest expenses will surpass the defense budget, forcing the Treasury to maintain loose liquidity to roll over debt. The fiat money supply growth rate of 5%-7% per year also cannot be stopped.

This is why the core value of BTC as a safe haven is not just about resisting centralization risks, but crucially about fighting inflation. This has become the consensus foundation for a future slow or even long-term bull market.

There are also breakthroughs on the application layer. In 2018 and 2022, aside from speculation and BTC, the crypto ecosystem had almost no real applications. Now? Products like PumpFun and Hyperliquid, which have broken out of their niches, are emerging. Stablecoins and PayPal integration are happening, and predictive markets are taking off. Honestly, a killer app comparable to TikTok or ChatGPT is not a dream—hundreds of millions of new users and large capital inflows are possible.

From a probability perspective:

50% chance—soft landing + slow bull route, holding core assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB without needing stop-loss, with $BTC oscillating between $80,000 and $140,000.

20% chance—breaking the four-year cycle and experiencing a super bull run.

30% chance—history repeats, leading to a complete crash.

Honestly, for institutional investors, 2026 is an excellent low-entry point. For retail investors used to 100x coins? Treat it as a bear market, and you won't go wrong.