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Market sentiment is panicked, but big funds are secretly accumulating—this is the most heartbreaking phenomenon in the recent Bitcoin spot market.
A few days ago, data showed that among the top 25 most profitable ETFs in the US this year, a leading institution's Bitcoin spot ETF, despite dropping nearly 10%, was the only loser, yet it ranked sixth in fund inflows. In comparison, the gold ETF with a 64% return didn't have nearly as much inflow. Irony, right?
Even more dramatic, just after November ended, this ETF experienced a historic single-day outflow of $523 million. A product that ranks high in inflows and simultaneously undergoes massive capital withdrawals—what does this reflect? The narrative on the surface of the market and the actual fund flows have completely diverged.
Retail investors see the decline and start to sell off, but what are institutions doing? Since the October high, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30%, approaching the $90,000 mark. Throughout November, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market experienced collective outflows exceeding $3 billion. Traders have even started buying "insurance"—downside protection against Bitcoin falling to $80,000.
Panic indeed permeates the market. But this is precisely the time for discerning institutions to act. A well-known university's endowment fund increased its IBIT holdings by 257% in the third quarter, now holding approximately $442 million, making it their largest single position. Meanwhile, the investment committee in Abu Dhabi is quietly increasing its Bitcoin ETF allocations.
This is almost the most common scene in market cycles: retail investors scream at the bottom, while institutions quietly position themselves. When prices fall, funds are actually flowing in—what does this mean? It indicates that smart money doesn't believe this decline has a bottomless pit.