Bitcoin prepares to close the year in a subdued state

After a year full of volatility, Bitcoin is entering the end-of-year period with a rather quiet atmosphere. Contrary to the usual “Santa Rally” seen in traditional stock markets during Christmas, BTC currently shows several signs of caution: weakening fundamentals, institutional capital outflows, and market sentiment leaning towards defense. At present, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates between $86,400 and $88,000, down about 30% from the all-time high in October (around $126,000). These are no longer minor adjustments but clearly reflect a change in market expectations. Market Status: Neutral Bullish The overall trend of BTC is in a state that can be called “neutral bullish.” The main reason comes from over $23 billion in options expiring this week, causing most investors to stand aside and observe. This has led to a sharp decline in liquidity during the holiday period, with a noticeable narrowing of price volatility. In the derivatives market, the number of Long contracts is increasing, but this also limits short-term upside potential due to higher profit-taking and liquidation risks. Bitcoin After the ETF Fever 2025 marks Bitcoin’s journey from the ETF frenzy to facing macroeconomic realities. Today, BTC is no longer just a speculative tool but has become an asset closely tied to the USD financial system, corporate earnings, and global geopolitical games. However, the core value of Bitcoin, in my personal view, still lies in its widespread distribution of ownership, not in being accumulated and held centrally by large organizations. Excessive concentration would diminish Bitcoin’s vitality and original spirit. Perception Barriers for Individual Investors Most retail investors struggle to access correct economic thinking, not necessarily because they lack intelligence, but because the mainstream economic education worldwide has left too many misconceptions. This makes it difficult for them to understand and apply truly good assets like Bitcoin, gold, or high-quality corporate stocks, as well as sustainable methods like value investing. Conversely, misconceptions about wealth creation—short-term speculation, price manipulation, excessive consumption—are widely spread and more accessible. Upcoming Action Strategies Wait for a rebound to sell off the remaining altcoin holdings. Develop a long-term plan, prepare the mindset and resources for a Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Closely monitor US monetary policy, especially QE and interest rate reduction plans; pay attention to short-term rebounds like “small spring” or early-year waves. Most importantly, maintain a stable mindset and avoid emotional trading with overly large positions. In the current context, patience and discipline are probably the greatest advantages for long-term investors.