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The recent statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have completely shifted the market's perception—this former "dove" is truly changing course.
In a speech before the Japan Business Federation, he candidly stated that wage increases have been confirmed, the upward momentum of prices is clear, and the 2% inflation target is no longer a distant promise. More importantly, real interest rates remain at extremely low levels, and continuing to maintain a negative interest rate policy is clearly untenable. The underlying message is unmistakable: "The zero interest rate cycle is coming to an end, rate hikes have begun, and they will continue next year."
Compared to the ambiguous statement from a week ago, the market immediately pushed the yen to 157. Ueda was evidently forced to "show his hand," using more decisive language to correct the overly pessimistic interpretation of the market.
The hawkish Christmas speech was like a bugle—traders were collectively stunned. Those betting on further yen depreciation through carry trade strategies faced enormous pressure. Short positions on the yen on Wall Street were wailing, and yen short holders began to lose sleep. They realized that the "free ATM" was about to close.
This not only marks the official end of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy but also signals a major shift in global capital allocation. Japanese government bonds are no longer the "cheapest trash in the world," and the yen is no longer a tool for arbitrage trading.
From a 30-year zero-interest "ninja" to suddenly drawing the sword, Ueda's turnaround might be the most hardline "mid-life rebel" among central banks. The market now needs to reevaluate the true value of Japanese assets overnight. Investors still asking "Can I bottom-fish the yen?" may need to listen to Ueda's next move—another rate hike is coming soon.