Gold is shining, but Bitcoin seems somewhat confused, as funds are quietly changing direction.

Do you remember what Federal Reserve Chair Powell said? "A December rate cut is far from a sure thing." Just this sentence alone instantly cooled the market atmosphere. Not long ago, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which should have been a positive signal for the market, but both US stocks and gold instead plunged.

What’s even more painful is that there are disagreements within the Federal Reserve. One member insists on a 50 basis point rate cut, while another insists on keeping rates unchanged. This contradictory situation caught investors off guard, making market volatility as exciting as a roller coaster.

**The True Story Behind the Hawkish Rate Cut**

In the early morning of October 30 (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve confirmed that the federal funds rate target range would be lowered to 3.75%—4.00%, and simultaneously announced that quantitative tightening would cease on December 1. On the surface, it looks like a combination of easing policies, but in reality, it triggered a reverse reaction in the market.

After Powell finished speaking, the three major US stock indices plummeted straight down that day. The two-year US Treasury yield surged about 10 basis points, and the US dollar index shifted from decline to rise, even breaking through the 99 mark.

The core issue lies here—the market began to redefine this rate cut as a "hawkish rate cut." In plain terms, the policy easing was not nearly as expansive as investors had imagined a "liquidity feast" would be.

Looking at data from the CME Group, it’s clear: market expectations for a continued rate cut in December dropped from as high as 90% before the meeting to a range of 65%—71%. The huge gap between expectations and reality instantly disrupted the market rhythm, and funds began to replan their next moves.