The severity of the bear market may exceed expectations. Based on market cycles, Bitcoin could reach a low range of $30,000 to $60,000 by the end of 2026. If the panic index drops to around 10 at that time, it will be a critical opportunity for large-scale positioning—these low-level opportunities require long-term holding to realize gains. Based on this logical framework, the spot holding cycle can be extended to 2029, when prices are expected to rise to a range of $150,000 to $250,000.

The real challenge lies in the chain reaction of the bear market. Exchange bankruptcies, project team escapes, institutional collapses—all of these could be imminent risk triggers. When 99% of tokens go to zero, the market landscape will undergo a fundamental reshuffle, entering an era of deep stock competition.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's position appears particularly special. It is one of the few assets capable of traversing the entire bull and bear cycles, with risk resistance far surpassing other tokens. The correct strategy for this cycle is: hold cash and wait, rather than blindly holding positions.

Another structural change worth noting is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has become normalized, reducing the likelihood of large-scale liquidity releases. Meanwhile, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised the price floor, gradually compressing volatility. This means Bitcoin is completing its transformation from a risk asset to an asset allocation product, and its market cap may gradually approach that of traditional safe-haven assets like gold.