#降息预期 Seeing the Federal Reserve's latest decision, my thoughts drifted back to 2015. That was the start of a rate hike cycle, and the market plunged from prosperity to the bottom; many people suffered losses trying to buy the dip at that time. Today’s talk of rate cuts reaching an end echoes the logic of the rate hike starting point back then—both are moments confirming a policy inflection point.

A 75 basis point annual cumulative rate cut sounds very accommodative, but the dot plot indicates only one rate cut next year, which is an interesting signal. Powell said very plainly: preventive rate cuts are over; future moves depend on the labor market. This is similar to the "small turbulence" at the end of 2018, where internal Fed disagreements over policy direction became unusual, and officials' willingness to cut rates noticeably weakened.

I understand the market's mixed reactions to Bitcoin briefly breaking below 94,000 and then quickly rebounding. Each rate cut cycle has a similar rhythm: full of imagination in the early stages, but at the end, it becomes more certain. History tells me that when monetary policy shifts from expansion to pause, the real test is just beginning—at this point, it’s no longer about liquidity but about fundamentals and patience.

Labor market data will become the next key, just like last year when we focused on CPI. I’ve seen too many investors repeatedly make mistakes at policy inflection points; ultimately, the winners are often those who see through the cycle and stick to their bottom line.