#降息预期 The on-chain signals following the rate cut are worth paying attention to. The Federal Reserve's "hidden QE" has indeed changed liquidity expectations — based on the $40 billion Treasury reserve purchase plan launched in December, the policy environment is quietly shifting towards moderation. This provides clear support for the crypto market.

But there is a key contradiction to be cautious of: behind weak employment data (with resignation rates at their lowest since 2020 and layoffs approaching a three-year high), consumers are engaging in frantic leverage — credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion, with an average interest rate exceeding 20%. Household finances are already stretched thin.

This means the support for rate cuts is limited, and may even be amplified by high debt levels and sluggish growth, impacting the market. It is recommended to focus on two signals: first, institutional fund flows, to see if large investors are truly building positions at this time; second, whale wallet movements, to observe their genuine reactions to the current liquidity environment. The window of opportunity provided by rate cut expectations may not last long, and market volatility will intensify amid fluctuating macro data. Caution is more important than optimism.