This year's asset markets have shown a polarization: gold has risen by 69%, while Bitcoin's performance has been less than ideal. Q4 saw a sharp decline of 22.8%, and the full-year loss is 5%. Seeing these numbers, many people are beginning to worry whether Bitcoin has already entered a difficult period. But the reality may not be so pessimistic.

The decline before Christmas appears to be a "holiday effect" on the surface, but there are other reasons behind it. Data on capital flows over the past three months show that institutional funds began to withdraw systematically as early as mid-November. By December 20th, institutional holdings had decreased by 18%. This is the key point—Bitcoin's price movement has always been controlled by large institutions, while retail investor sentiment can only serve as a booster. Coupled with the significant liquidity contraction in global markets during the Christmas holiday, a small amount of selling can trigger a chain reaction, resulting in the 22.8% drop. The issue is not deteriorating fundamentals but the combined effect of capital and liquidity.

Turning to the opportunities after the holiday, data from the options market is worth noting. In the battle between bulls and bears, some analysts predict a explosive rebound after the holiday, but this requires a clear premise—that it is a short-term pulse increase, not a trend reversal. From the data perspective, major players have already used $300 million in gamma risk exposure to keep the price within the range of $85,000 to $90,000. Once the holiday options expire, this "shackle" will be released, and the price may face a breakout.