Recently, I have been analyzing the trend of ZEC and found that some investors' actions are indeed interesting—whenever the market slightly fluctuates, they start shouting various price targets, and short-term traders often do not cut losses when the trend reverses. As someone who has a long-term bearish view, I want to share my perspective.

**Thematic concepts are outdated**
The concept of privacy coins is no longer fresh. The FOMO craze from back then has already passed, and now the market occasionally experiences one or two weeks of collective hype reminiscent of炒冷饭, but such trends lack sustainability. More importantly, the entire crypto industry has shifted towards compliance—projects are now focused on how to obtain liquidity and funding from compliant markets, with few still venturing into gray areas, privacy, or evasion.

**Lack of competitiveness within the track**
ZEC is not the leader in the privacy coin sector; its popularity and application layer are far inferior to benchmark projects like XMR. The recent surge was indeed strong, but this can easily create an illusion that a large increase indicates high quality. In reality, this is a classic case of reverse causality—good coins tend to rise significantly, but among those with large gains, there are many junk projects.

**Mining sell pressure is hard to absorb**
ZEC's mining costs are surprisingly low, and miners' profits are several times higher, which results in continuous selling pressure. Most miners do not consider the bigger picture—they need to eat, shareholders want dividends, owners need to spend, and new mining equipment must be purchased. ZEC's mining speed has not reached the sluggish level of BTC, which means the sell pressure will persist. To stabilize the price, a continuous influx of large funds is required, which is clearly unsustainable.