Regarding recent market trends, there is a phenomenon worth noting: the Federal Reserve's rate hike has shattered many people's expectations of a global "liquidity-driven bull market." The current situation is that major central banks are showing clear divergence in policies—while the Fed continues to cut rates to stimulate the economy, the Bank of Japan is forced to raise rates to combat inflation. This asynchronous policy pattern is fundamentally changing the logic of how the crypto market operates.

What was the previous approach? Global central banks often moved in sync—either all easing or all tightening—making capital flows relatively clear and predictable. Following an easing cycle generally meant making profits. But now, the situation is completely reversed. One side easing while the other tightening means capital will flow between different assets and regions, no longer producing clear one-way trends. Instead, frequent volatility and even a single statement from a central bank can trigger significant price swings.

In such an environment, the old "buy and hold" strategy for cryptocurrencies is clearly no longer effective. To survive, you need to adjust your mindset:

**First, re-evaluate project value.** The era of simply betting on liquidity is over. Now, it’s essential to look at whether a project has real demand—such as BTC’s safe-haven properties, the yield mechanisms of certain DeFi tokens, or the practicality of specific use cases. Only assets with solid fundamentals can stand firm amid oscillating markets.

**Second, keep an eye on capital flows.** The US dollar index, cross-border capital movements, interest rate differentials across regions—these data points are more important than ever. Spending time daily monitoring these indicators can help you better predict where capital is heading and thus gauge potential market directions.

**Third, implement solid risk management.** In markets with increased uncertainty, position sizing and stop-loss settings become a matter of life and death. Aggressive full-position trading is too risky at this stage.