The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is as high as 84.5%. How should the market interpret this?

Question

【Blockchain Rhythm】 According to the latest data from CME Federal Reserve Watch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year has reached 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 15.5%. This indicates that the likelihood of the Fed remaining on hold in the short term is much higher than that of easing. The market generally expects a relatively tight liquidity environment, which will have certain impacts on cryptocurrency asset allocation strategies—tightening expectations usually suppress enthusiasm for high-risk assets, but may also create bottoming opportunities at certain stages. Investors need to closely monitor Federal Reserve officials' statements and economic data trends to prepare in advance for possible interest rate changes.

AlphaLeaker · Accepted Answer

84.5% probability is indeed quite strong, but these numbers will probably change again in a few days, right?

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During periods of liquidity tightness, it's actually a good opportunity to get in; it all depends on who can withstand the psychological pressure.

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Here we go again with the rhetoric of closely monitoring the Federal Reserve; you still have to read the charts yourself.

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Tightening expectations suppress high-risk assets? Well, let's see how those coins are still bouncing around now.

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Maintaining a 85% interest rate—this probability sounds like it's saying the probability itself is meaningless; the market has already priced it in.

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I've heard the term "bottom opportunity" so many times, but when it actually comes, few people dare to buy in.

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Being prepared is right, but prepared for what? Funds or mindset?

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When liquidity becomes tighter, it means you need to slow down on the bend; this time, you really need to be more careful.

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Instead of guessing the next move of the Federal Reserve, it's better to see where the institutions are stacking their chips.

MetaverseHomeless · Answer

Another hawkish stance, with 84.5% remaining on the sidelines... The crypto world is about to go broke.

GhostAddressHunter · Answer

There is a 84.5% chance that there will be no rate cut at all, indicating that the Federal Reserve still wants to hold firm. This means the crypto market will face more pressure again, as high-risk assets indeed struggle to survive in a tightening environment.

SchrodingerProfit · Answer

84.5% probability of holding, it's going to be tough again

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Tightening expectations cause the market to fall as soon as it drops, waiting for the bottom to come

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I've had a premonition for a while now, liquidity is definitely tight

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So should I now buy the dip or continue to hold cash?

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Again, "potential bottom formation opportunity," how many times have I heard this phrase haha

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No rate hikes, my high-risk assets can move now, just go all in

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Pay close attention to the overall situation, but who can really predict economic data?

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The hope for a 15.5% rate cut is gone, it's a total letdown

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This is getting interesting, I guess we'll have to endure through the first half of next year

LiquidityWitch · Answer

Coming back with this again? The Federal Reserve keeps slacking off, and we're still forced to play catch-up.

OfflineNewbie · Answer

A 84.5% probability can still be written so frighteningly; the Federal Reserve still has to keep holding back.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is as high as 84.5%. How should the market interpret this?

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