2025-12-25 16:24:59

Recently, a hot topic in the crypto market has been the trigger points for extreme risk. Simply put, for Bitcoin, this is not an abstract concept but a tangible risk that is right there.

The logic is straightforward: once extreme situations occur—such as a sudden regulatory shift, macro black swan events, or liquidity drying up—Bitcoin could be pushed to the brink of collapse in minutes. You might still remember the market surge in October 2025, when a tweet about a tariff policy directly triggered a $19.3 billion liquidation, with 1.6 million people being liquidated. This is the most realistic depiction of risk.

A common view now is: the Federal Reserve has relaxed regulations, and the policies for banks and crypto assets are also being optimized, so the risk line has disappeared? I have to say, this judgment is overly optimistic.

What is the actual situation? U.S. regulation now follows a "open but with bottom lines" approach. While some restrictions on banks entering this space have been lifted, principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain firm, and the shadow of previous legal actions against large institutions still lingers.

A more realistic concern is the price itself. Bitcoin is currently around $80,000, with a large amount of trapped positions stacked above. Once there is any disturbance—such as a sudden tightening of stablecoin policies or deteriorating macroeconomic data causing capital to withdraw—the market liquidity could dry up significantly within hours, directly breaking through several key technical support levels.

One characteristic of the crypto market is that risk does not need to accumulate slowly. High leverage trading combined with 24/7 trading mechanisms can exponentially amplify risks in a very short period. Historical major security incidents—such as a $1.5 billion theft at a leading exchange or a $220 million hack of a DeFi protocol—are real-life examples of this logic.

This is not to say one should be completely pessimistic about the market, but when evaluating current opportunities, these risk factors must be openly considered. Regulations are changing, but the market’s fragility also exists.

BTC-0.13%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 6h ago

193 billion liquidation wave, I watched it unfold, this is the true face of the crypto market --- 80,000 yuan stacked with so many trapped chips, feels like it could explode at any moment --- "Open but with bottom lines" regulation? Sounds like they might turn hostile at any time --- High leverage combined with 24/7 trading, risk index exploding—no doubt about that --- No concessions on anti-money laundering principles, does that mean surprise inspections could happen at any time? --- Tightening of stablecoin policies causes liquidity to evaporate instantly, I can imagine this scene --- Better to be cautious than overly optimistic; risks are now clearly in front of us --- $1.5 billion theft, $220 million stolen—who can we still trust? --- Bitcoin crash threshold sounds terrifying, but it could indeed happen --- So now, just waiting to see who will be the next one of 1.6 million to be liquidated?

View OriginalReply0

NFTHoarder

· 6h ago

The 19.3 billion liquidation was truly the end. Leverage traders hadn't even reacted before they were wiped out. This is the real risk. There is indeed a lot of trapped orders around 80,000, feeling like a ticking time bomb. Once policies change, it's all over. These days, those who trust regulatory relaxation deserve to be wiped out. The bottom line has never changed. Liquidity exhaustion happens in seconds. The crypto market is 24/7, and even a single tweet can trigger a bloodbath. Those who say the risk has disappeared are really overly optimistic. I feel anxious for them.

View OriginalReply0

TideReceder

· 6h ago

The wave of 19.3 billion liquidations really left a psychological shadow. Now, even around 80,000, I feel a bit hesitant. Just thinking that loosening regulations means no risk is a mindset that needs to change. Leverage is just a ticking time bomb; once liquidity dries up, it collapses instantly. With so many trapped chips piled up, a black swan event can just come and crash down easily, nothing difficult about it. Regulation is indeed being optimized, but the anti-money laundering line has never been relaxed. Don’t be fooled by superficial openness. The $220 million DeFi theft case, honestly, is just risk accumulation reaching the breaking point; no one can escape. Instead of blindly being optimistic, it’s better to think more about the downside potential. Be serious. Everyone entering now has some gambling elements involved. I’d rather earn less than get washed out. The exponential amplification characteristic is so damn frustrating; you might wake up one day and be liquidated. Honestly, regulatory changes don’t mean the market becomes safer. That logic is flawed. The few hours of liquidity drying up are the real hell mode.

View OriginalReply0

NFTRegretter

· 6h ago

Honestly, the $19.3 billion liquidation wave made my spine chill. Now at the $80,000 level, it's even more dangerous. It's not like I haven't been through it before; when the black swan comes again, we'll have to go through it all over again. Once the stablecoin policy tightens and liquidity disappears instantly, those with high leverage can only cut losses and admit defeat. Regulatory easing? Ha, they won't really loosen the line of consumer protection. Don't be fooled. With so many trapped orders stacked above $80,000, who the hell would dare to buy the dip?

View OriginalReply0

governance_ghost

· 6h ago

193 billion liquidation wave was truly a nightmare. One tweet can destroy 1.6 million people, that's outrageous. Now, with $80,000 still daring to chase, you must have a very strong heart. Leverage trading is basically gambling on probabilities. When a black swan appears, there's no way to dodge it. Relaxed regulations ≠ no risk. Too many people have been fooled by this logic. Just wait to get cut. Actually, it's the liquidity exhaustion during those few hours that was the most terrifying. Support levels that couldn't hold in the blink of an eye were broken. Fortunately, I had already reduced my position long ago. Now I just watch the show; someone will always take the other side.

View OriginalReply0