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Most newcomers to the market have done the same thing—desperately searching for that "perfect strategy."
The idealized version would look like this: an extremely high win rate, an astonishing risk-reward ratio, frequent trading opportunities, and then the profit curve steadily trending northward, rising smoothly. How wonderful that would be.
But after playing for a while, you'll gradually realize that such a thing simply doesn't exist.
There's a saying in the trading community: win rate, risk-reward ratio, and trading frequency—it's impossible to have all three at the same time. It sounds like a paradox, but upon reflection, it's the truth of the market.
**What is the cost of a high win rate?**
Martingale strategies are a classic example. Frequent entries and exits, most of the time the account is making money, which feels very comfortable psychologically. But what's the downside? The risk-reward ratio is very low. It looks like you're earning a lot, but in reality, it's just small gains. Once you hit a stop-loss, the losses become very noticeable. The capital curve may be steady, but the ceiling is right there.
**So, what if we change our approach?**
Trend-following strategies take the opposite extreme. The win rate is very low, but once you catch the right trend, the risk-reward ratio can reach 3:1 or even higher. In the long run, the mathematical expectation is positive, and the account can grow. The problem is on the psychological level—enduring consecutive losses is tough, and without strong mental resilience, you simply can't withstand it.
**What if you want all of these?**
High frequency, high win rate, and high risk-reward ratio simultaneously? Most people dream of it, but the reality is, it's almost impossible. Sometimes it looks good in the short term, but as soon as the market style shifts, drawdowns come—and they can be severe.
The fundamental logic is: if you want a high win rate, you have to accept a lower risk-reward ratio; if you want a high risk-reward ratio, you must accept a lower win rate; if you want to trade frequently, you have to make compromises on your expectations.
Instead of obsessing over the perfect strategy, it's better to ask yourself: what kind of cost am I willing to accept? Then choose a direction you can stick with long-term, and clearly understand your risk tolerance—that's the right path.