2025-12-25 14:21:05

Tomorrow will be a critical moment for the Bitcoin options market—approximately $23.6 billion worth of BTC options are about to expire, marking the first time in Bitcoin history.

Why is this so important? Because after options expiration, market makers will gradually unwind their hedging positions. The price support and resistance levels that were "locked in" by the options structure will temporarily lose their effectiveness. The market will be like losing its support beams suddenly, potentially creating a liquidity gap in the short term.

Will Bitcoin's volatility suddenly increase? Very likely. But it's important to clarify a common misconception—volatility expansion does not necessarily mean a sharp decline. These two concepts should never be confused.

Conversely, if BTC retraces to the previous lows around $80,000–$82,000 during this period, it could actually create a good short-term long opportunity. Market participants are likely to engage in a tug-of-war at this level, eventually leading to a rebound.

Let's also analyze from a detailed indicator perspective. The "Price vs. Capital Inflow Gradient" indicator has recently shown a bullish divergence—simply put, the price is still trending downward, but the actual cash outflow is not keeping pace. This is a signal: the downward momentum is waning.

This indicator essentially measures whether the speed of price change and the actual capital flow change are synchronized. When the withdrawal strength is weaker than the slope of the price decline, it often indicates that the current downtrend is being corrected, and the market needs a rebound to release pressure.

Looking back at past cycles, during 2021-2022 and 2024-2025, similar bullish divergence signals appeared a total of four times. What happened afterward? BTC each time experienced a rebound of varying degrees, with some even reversing the entire trend.

However, we also need to consider the current macro environment—the overall market sentiment is still in a phase of bearish correction, so we shouldn't be overly optimistic. The most rational judgment is that the probability of a short-term rebound is indeed higher than that of directly initiating a new downtrend.

(For analysis and discussion only)

BTC-0.47%

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ProtocolRebel

· 9h ago

23.6 billion maturing and crashing down, this wave probably needs to be endured to get through Wait, is it a bullish divergence again? The last time I heard this saying was half a year ago, and the result was... Can the 80,000 level really rebound? Why do I feel like it will continue to break? Market makers accumulating positions and all, sounds very exciting. Remember to leverage tomorrow, everyone Price drops but funds didn't follow? Hmm... sounds very professional, but I still trust my intuition a bit more History always repeats itself, but never in the same way — isn't it? If this wave really rebounds, I’ll believe in this indicator

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InscriptionGriller

· 9h ago

23.6 billion? Bro, this time it's really about to cut a piece. When support is gone, let's see who admits defeat first. Options expiration is the start of the leek harvesting machine. Should we position ourselves precisely in this wave or continue to wait and see? I half believe the bullish divergence signal. The old tricks in the crypto circle have been played for five or six years and are still being repeated. It's not unreasonable to see tug-of-war battles at the 80,000 yuan level a few times; after all, it's all a capital game. Will history repeat itself? Don't be silly. Every time they say there are experiences and lessons, but in the end, it's the same dead end. If funds aren't following the up and down? That means the main players are eating up chips, waiting for us to cut losses. Is the short-term rebound probability high? Then we should be even more cautious. The rebound might be the last escape door.

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AltcoinHunter

· 9h ago

23.6 billion maturity, this time it's really different... Speaking of which, I still find the "all-time high" claims a bit intimidating. The 80,000-82,000 range has been marked in red for a long time. If it really drops to this level, I’ll have to consider adding to my position. The divergence in capital flow does seem to indicate something, but the bearish sentiment is still there. It feels like the rebound will only be around 3-5%, so don’t overthink it, traders. Breaking below or bottoming out, we’ll see the real story tomorrow. I bet on a short-term rebound, but don’t even think about going all-in just yet.

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RegenRestorer

· 9h ago

Wait, 23.6 billion? If this wave crashes down, I'll just buy the dip. Don't tell me about support levels. The bullish divergence has appeared 4 times and each time it rebounded. Why can't it work this time? Feels like the market is just scaring people. I don't understand options trading anyway. Just buy low, it's that simple. 80,000 yuan for one Bitcoin? Why the hell do I have no money? That's heartbreaking. Is the probability of a short-term rebound high? Then just wait to buy the dip. I have plenty of idle funds.

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DegenApeSurfer

· 10h ago

23.6 billion one-time maturity, if this wave crashes down, it will be crazy Wait, the capital outflow hasn't kept up with the price decline? Then why is it still being pushed down? 82,000 really arrives, I must go all out History repeats itself, can it rebound this time? Feels different this round The bear market correction phase claiming a rebound is a bit unbelievable, who really decides The chosen one will definitely avoid this wave of sharp decline, I’ve made up my mind

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BearMarketSunriser

· 10h ago

236 billion? That number looks uncomfortable; I’m afraid we’ll need to tighten up tomorrow. Wait, the author says that big fluctuations don’t necessarily mean a crash. Why do I always feel like this is just self-comfort? I remember the 80,000 to 82,000 level; the last rebound also started from there. Is history always this coincidental? The divergence in funds looks good, but who still dares to trust indicators now? Haven’t we been fooled before? Is there a high probability of a short-term rebound? I just want to know how many days this rebound can last. Historically, four bullish divergences have led to rebounds. Could this be the fifth time it fails? On options expiration day, I have to stay glued to the screen. Feels like something’s about to happen.

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