#劳动力市场 Seeing Morgan Stanley's judgment on the bull run in 2026, what flashed through my mind were the several cycles I have experienced over the years. The statement that the labor market "is only showing moderate weakness" is actually a very interesting signal for those who have lived through several bear and bull markets.

Looking back at the 2008 financial crisis, the labor market was truly frozen—unemployment soared to 10%, and corporate hiring almost came to a halt. At that time, no amount of liquidity easing policies could save the stock market. However, during the adjustment wave in 2015-2016, although there was pressure on the labor market, it was far from being as extreme, ultimately supporting the subsequent rebound.

The current situation is somewhat reminiscent of 2016 - the market has digested some pressure, profit trends are gradually emerging, and the interest rate environment is adjusting. The key point is that the labor market has not spiraled out of control, which means the economic resilience is still there. Consumer discretionary and small-cap stocks are overallocated, indicating that the market is starting to believe in the recovery of the demand side, rather than still worrying about a recession.

But I have to be honest, historically, this kind of "moderate weakness" judgment is the easiest to misjudge. We heard similar rhetoric in 2021, and we all know what the outcome was. The prerequisites must be truly stabilized for the bull run in 2026 to become a reality. It's still early to place bets, but the direction of the layout is worth paying attention to.