#比特币价格分析 Reflecting on the Bitcoin market over the past years, I can't help but feel a mix of emotions. This report from Bitfinex reminds me of the bottom characteristics observed in previous cycles. The current market is experiencing a typical deleveraging and capitulation process, with many indicators suggesting we may be approaching a local bottom.

The real-world adjustments have led to losses soaring to $400 million, a level that usually indicates capitulation is nearing its end. Open interest in futures contracts has also significantly declined from its highs, indicating that leverage is being systematically absorbed. These are common features of historical bottoms.

However, we must also be cautious of excessive optimism. After all, whether a true bottom has formed at the price level remains to be seen. Historical experience tells us that genuine bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation and a process of rebuilding confidence.

If this truly is the bottom, it is likely to be followed by a longer consolidation phase. This may not be a bad thing for the market, as it can digest previous bubbles and lay the groundwork for the next rally. For investors, this is a good time to accumulate and position, but patience is key—don't expect a sharp rebound in the short term.

Overall, I believe the market is moving toward a healthier and more rational direction. But investors still need to be cautious, as history often repeats itself but is not exactly the same. We should learn from history, but also stay adaptable to new market environments.