#美联储重启降息步伐 The Bank of Japan's rate hike plan is becoming an unavoidable topic in the crypto space.

According to market pricing, the probability that the BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75% at its December 18-19 meeting has already surpassed 90%. This isn’t just Japan’s own business—it will directly impact global crypto asset liquidity, especially BTC.

**Why is this happening?**

With the current ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan, many investors have long borrowed low-cost yen and then turned to invest in high-yield assets like Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. This is the well-known yen carry trade. Once the Bank of Japan seriously raises rates to 0.75%, financing costs will spike, and the previously lucrative interest rate spread will be severely compressed. Investors will be forced to close positions to cut losses, leading to a rapid contraction in liquidity, and all risk assets will suffer.

A similar event occurred in mid-2024, with BTC plunging as much as 18% intraday; that was exactly this kind of scenario. While the current situation isn’t as abrupt, the leverage chain remains fragile—any small disturbance will sharply increase overall market sensitivity.

**Current Status**

BTC is now priced at $90,439, down -1.32% over 24 hours, with a total market cap of $2.85T. Judging by the numbers, the market has already priced in part of the rate hike expectations, but short-term pressure remains. With Tokyo’s core CPI above expectations, the yen is quietly strengthening, which will further push up import costs, and officials’ hawkish signals are becoming increasingly clear.

**Long-term Perspective**

Besides the short-term liquidity shock, we also need to look further ahead. Rate hikes will push global yields higher, which directly increases the discount rate for crypto assets, inevitably putting pressure on valuations. And starting in 2026, Japan will impose a unified 20% tax rate on crypto trading, further limiting the space for speculative funds. Capital may gradually flow into traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold.

BTC’s sensitivity to macro risks has always been high. Although this BOJ move has been partially priced in, the real test may still be ahead.