The independence of the Federal Reserve is undergoing a subtle transformation.

This institution, established in 1913, was originally designed to separate monetary policy from political power. Its decision-making core is a 12-member committee, but the real center of power lies with the seven governors—appointed for 14-year terms, theoretically immune to the influence of any single administration.

The current situation is: the current administration has already nominated three governors. If one more is successfully nominated, four out of the seven board members will be from the same camp. Plus, the chair is also nominated by the government, which means the balance of monetary policy could become skewed.

The market is discussing several possibilities:

The first scenario is that the easing cycle arrives sooner than expected. In a low-interest-rate environment, debt pressure will temporarily ease, but an overflow of liquidity is almost inevitable. Historically, every major round of monetary easing has been first detected by the commodities and energy sectors.

The second, deeper concern: if the Fed's independence is called into question by the market, the credibility of the US dollar as a reserve currency would be shaken. Once the direction of capital flows changes, it is not something that can be reversed in a quarter or two.

Interestingly, the RMB has indeed performed strongly recently. The single-day gain exceeded 400 points, and the exchange rate is approaching a key level. In the composition of global reserve currencies, the RMB’s share has steadily increased over the past two years. Although the absolute value is still not high, the trend has already formed.

For the crypto market, this kind of macro-level game is the real long-term variable. Monetary easing usually benefits risk assets, but if it comes with issues regarding dollar credibility, where will capital choose to go? This may be more worth watching than any single piece of positive news.

Of course, all of this is still at the deduction stage. Policy implementation takes time, and market reaction will not happen overnight. But at least one thing is clear: any crack in the monetary system will be sharply detected by capital.