Two major recent developments have completely shattered the calm of the stablecoin market.

Let’s start with the mainland. Thirteen departments unusually sat down together for a meeting, sending a very clear signal: all virtual currency-related activities are classified as illegal financial activities, and any use of stablecoins for money laundering or asset transfers will be severely cracked down on. This isn’t just a warning—it’s a concrete “clean-up” operation, with the goal of paving the way for the digital RMB.

Now looking at Hong Kong, they’re taking a completely different route. They have no plans to ban stablecoins, but have instead designed an extremely strict licensing regime. The Deputy CEO of the HKMA put it bluntly: “The threshold is very high.” Even entering the sandbox testing doesn’t guarantee a full license. The implication? They want to take market control away from giants like Tether and hand it over to qualified, licensed institutions. Application scenarios are also limited: professional investors, cross-border trade settlement, and other real-economy use cases. Hong Kong aims to build an “elite club”-style financial experimental zone.

What impact will these two approaches have on the market?

There will be fundamental shifts in capital flows. Mainland USDT trading channels now carry much higher risks—participants will either exit and wait, or turn to relatively transparent alternatives like USDC. The industry landscape will be completely reshaped—when the largest stablecoin faces restrictions in both core markets at the same time, the era of wild expansion based on scale and speed is over. From now on, compliance capabilities will be the key to survival for projects.

There’s another point worth watching: can Hong Kong’s sandbox experiment succeed? If it truly becomes a legitimate gateway for traditional capital to enter the crypto world, the implications would be huge.

The situation is now clear—the rules have been rewritten. Some see approaching risks, while others see new opportunities in the wave of compliance. Who do you think is most likely to come out on top in this regulator-driven reshuffle?