Regarding the upcoming trend of Ethereum (ETH), there are currently various opinions in the market. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions, including short-term catalysts, medium-term macro environment, long-term fundamentals, and potential risks. The following is a summary of key points:

I. Short-Term Influencing Factors (1-3 months)

1. Progress of Ethereum Spot ETF
· Core Catalyst: The US SEC has approved the 19b-4 filing (exchange rule change), but the S-1 registration statement (issuer document) has not yet taken effect, and the ETF has not started trading.
· Key Timeline: The market expects approval possibly in July-August. Once capital inflows begin, it will become an important driving force for price appreciation (refer to the trend after the Bitcoin ETF approval).
· Current Status: The market is in the “expectation digestion” phase. If the approval is delayed or there are unexpected negative outcomes, a pullback may occur.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
· Overall Crypto Market: Significantly influenced by Bitcoin price action and US equities (especially tech stocks). If risk asset sentiment weakens, ETH will struggle to outperform.
· On-chain Data: Monitor changes in whale address holdings and ETH balances on exchanges (outflows may indicate accumulation demand). Recent data show exchange reserves have declined with the emergence of ETF expectations.

II. Medium-Term Technicals and Macro Environment (3-6 months)

1. Key Technical Levels
· Support Range:
· Strong Support: $3,200-$3,400 (previous breakout platform + 120-day EMA).
· Secondary Support: $3,000 (psychological level + institutional cost zone).
· Resistance Range:
· Key Resistance: $3,800-$4,000 (clustered previous highs). A breakout here could accelerate upward movement.
· Long-Term Target: If ETF inflows are strong, it may test $4,500-$5,000 within the year.
2. Macro Factors
· Fed Policy: Rate cut expectations (currently the market expects the first cut possibly in September) will boost risk assets. Conversely, if inflation bounces back and delays rate cuts, ETH’s upside may be limited.
· Regulatory Developments: Crypto policy may become clearer after the US elections, but in the short term, regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC’s stance on whether ETH is a security) remains an unresolved risk.

III. Long-Term Fundamentals (6 months and beyond)

1. Network Upgrades and Ecosystem Development
· EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding): Already implemented, significantly reducing Layer 2 transaction fees and enhancing ETH’s competitiveness as a settlement layer.
· Future Upgrades: Further sharding expansion, account abstraction, and other improvements will continue to enhance network efficiency.
· Ecosystem Activity: Growth in DeFi, Restaking, DePIN, and other sectors will increase practical demand for ETH.
2. Staking and Deflationary Model
· Staking Rate: Currently around 26%. If the ETF is approved, more institutions may participate in staking, reducing circulating supply.
· Deflationary Effect: Since the Merge, over 500,000 ETH have been net burned. The long-term deflationary trend is expected to support value.

IV. Potential Risks and Challenges

1. Competitive Pressure: High-performance blockchains such as Solana and Avalanche pose challenges in attracting users and developers.
2. Regulatory Risk: If the SEC classifies ETH as a security, US exchanges may delist it or face soaring compliance costs.
3. ETF Inflows Below Expectations: If post-approval inflows are slow (e.g., less than 20% of the Bitcoin ETF ratio), disappointment-driven sell-offs may occur.

V. Market Opinions Summary

· Optimistic View: After ETF approval, ETH will replicate the capital inflow logic of the Bitcoin ETF, targeting $4,500-$5,000 within the year.
· Cautious View: Short-term positives are partially priced in. Under macroeconomic uncertainty, ETH may first pull back to $3,200 before gathering momentum to move higher.
· Long-Term Bullish: As the leading smart contract platform, ecosystem innovation and the deflationary mechanism will drive ETH to outperform cyclical fluctuations.

Summary and Operational Reference

1. Short-Term Strategy:
· If already holding, consider setting a stop-loss below $3,200 while retaining position to play the ETF catalyst.
· If not yet entered, phased accumulation is preferable to chasing highs in one go. Watch the $3,400-$3,500 support range.
2. Key Observation Points:
· July-August: Progress on ETF S-1 approval.
· September: Fed rate decision meeting and CPI data.
· On-chain Metrics: Whale movements, net outflows from exchanges, derivatives funding rates (to avoid excessive leverage).

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market information collation only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high—please make decisions carefully in line with your own risk tolerance. It is recommended to continuously follow reports from authoritative institutions (such as CoinShares, Glasschain) and regulatory developments.