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US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data exploded? The Fed is about to be "sandwiched"!
Family, the US September Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data has been released, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, which is much higher than the expected 50,000. The August data was also revised upwards from 22,000.
But the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, reaching a new high since 2021. With this data released, the Fed is going to have a hard time.
The Fed was originally in a heated debate internally about whether to cut interest rates in December.
One side believes that interest rate cuts would "patch up" the labor market, while the other side fears that lowering interest rates will cause inflation to "run wild" and go directly "beyond 2". Now that this data has come out, both sides have something to say.
Moreover, the U.S. federal government has shut down, leading to a suspension of official data releases, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the employment report for October; some data will be merged into the November report.
Now it's good, the Fed's decision-making is like 'blind men touching an elephant', nothing is clear.
After the data was released, US Treasury yields and the dollar index both fell. This market is quite chaotic; President Trump has been calling for interest rate cuts, but the Fed has to weigh it for itself.
In the current situation, the Fed seems to be standing at a "crossroads," and must tread carefully in any direction.
Family, do you think the Fed will cut interest rates in December? Let's chat in the comments!