Market analysis for July 31, 2025

In the early hours of yesterday, the market experienced a significant pullback, with Bitcoin dropping below 116,000 and Ethereum falling below 3,600. Although the decline was not large, it slightly exceeded market expectations compared to the recent strong performance. The reason for the sharp drop is the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts in September. According to Chairman Powell's remarks, there is no certainty about an interest rate cut in September; it all depends on market data. It can even be said that the probability of maintaining the market interest rate unchanged for the sixth time in September is over 50%, which breaks market expectations. Currently, the market's probability of not cutting interest rates in September has increased from 33.6% to 51.8%.