Afternoon Review | Fed Rolls Out, BTC Key Level Defended

The overnight Fed decision’s “shoe” has landed: it kept interest rates unchanged and officially announced a slowdown in balance sheet reduction starting June (U.S. Treasuries from 60 billion down to 25 billion/month). Powell said it’s “not too likely” that there will be a rate hike, but rate cuts still need to wait. The market reads this as a “dovish hold,” with no near-term worries for risk assets.

Core Logic Revisions and Scenario Analysis:

1. On the “new boss”: The “Warsh” mentioned in the original text is actually a former governor (in office from 2006 to 2011), not the current Fed Chair. Powell is still at the helm, and market focus is on his “higher for longer” interest-rate stance and the pace of balance sheet reduction—not on any leadership change.

2. Sentiment judgment: The decision rules out the risk of a rate hike. The liquidity backdrop is somewhat neutral, which doesn’t support a one-sided, sudden plunge. But the postponement of rate cuts also suppresses upside momentum. Sideways trading remains the main tone.

3. Technical levels to watch: 74,300 is the intraday pivot between bulls and bears. Holding it keeps the market in a range-bound oscillation; losing it opens the downside toward 70,800.

Today’s Trading Strategy (BTC):

• Buy the pullback after midday: After stabilizing around 74,700, test a long; stop loss below 74,000; target 76,400–76,800.

• Short at overhead resistance: When capped around 76,800, test a short; stop loss 77,500; target 75,000.

• Follow on a breakdown: If it falls below 74,000 on increased volume, abandon the long positions and look to short the rebound targeting 70,800.

ETH synchronized strategy: The pace is consistent with the big BTC move; it’s recommended to trade in the same direction and no longer focus on specific price levels. $BTC $ETH $GT