So Chamath just filed for another SPAC. Yeah, that Chamath - the guy who was basically the face of the entire blank-check boom back in 2020-2021. He's raising $250 million for something called American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp (ticker AEXA), and honestly, it made me think about whether we've learned anything since the last time around.

For context, there are apparently over 700 private companies valued at $1B+, and the US has 2,000 fewer public companies than it did in the 1990s. So his thesis isn't wrong - there's probably real demand for an alternative to traditional IPOs. The new SPAC is hunting in four areas: energy production, AI, decentralized finance, and defense.

But here's where it gets interesting. If you actually look at Chamath's SPAC track record, it's... not great. During the boom years, he sponsored six SPACs under the IPO series (IPOA through IPOF). Out of those six, only one actually made money for people who bought and held - SoFi, which is up about 130% from the original $10 offering price. Virgin Galactic? Down 98.5%. Clover Health? Down 75%. Two of them never even found targets and just returned capital.

If you'd thrown $10,000 into each of his six SPACs back then, you'd have around $46,750 today. That's a brutal loss when you think about it. He also did a biotech SPAC series in 2021, and most of those didn't work out either.

Now, this time he's supposedly doing things differently. No warrants - most of the 2020-2021 deals had those. And his founder shares won't vest unless the stock pops 50% after any deal closes. Theoretically, this better aligns his incentives with yours. But let's be real - you're still writing a check for $10 per share without knowing what company you're actually buying into. You're betting on Chamath finding a good deal at a good price, and that target is almost certainly going to be an early-stage, high-risk growth company.

The SPAC space as a whole had the overwhelming majority of deals lose money for investors. So before you jump in, remember that this is pure speculation. Don't risk money you can't afford to lose, and keep your position size reasonable. The structural changes are interesting, but the fundamental risk profile of SPACs hasn't really changed.