DXY & Forex

Economists anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank in June 2026, primarily due to rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. While inflation is expected to peak at 2.8%, it should moderate in subsequent years, alongside muted economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone. The ECB remains cautious about potential future hikes amid uncertain geopolitical conditions.

Gate News message, April 17 — Southbound funds through Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded net inflows exceeding HKD 10 billion as of today.

This week's strong rebound of the New Taiwan Dollar was driven by significant foreign investment in the Taiwan stock market. The exchange rate rose to a 1.29% increase, reaching a recent high. However, the central bank is monitoring these changes to prevent excessive appreciation affecting export competitiveness.

On April 17, Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR) increased across all tenors, with the one-month rate rising to 2.55143% and overnight rates hitting the highest level since January at 3.36536%.

美國前財政部長亨利·保爾森（Henry Paulson）於 2026 年 4 月 17 日（週四）接受彭博社採訪時，敦促美國當局制定應對美國國債需求潛在崩潰的應急計劃，並表示危機一旦爆發，後果將極其嚴重。同日，美國財政部完成有史以來單筆規模最大債務回購，接受約 150 億美元的 2026 年至 2028 年到期舊債券。

前財政部長鮑爾森提醒美國應提前制定債務危機應變計畫，以應對潛在的美債崩盤。他擔心財政赤字將形成「死亡螺旋」，債務可能達2030年GDP的108%。但前聯準會交易員Wang認為公債危機不會發生，真正威脅在於美元信用崩潰及通膨失控。兩者觀點雖異，但皆指出美國財政風險終將顯現。

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns of a potential collapse in U.S. Treasury demand, which could destabilize the financial system and erode confidence in the dollar, shifting investments to Bitcoin and gold. Tether may face risks as well.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the conflict in the Middle East as a source of inflation and economic slowdown risks. He confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee will determine suitable measures to reach the 2% inflation target at the upcoming meeting.

The U.S. dollar index has dropped to near 98 from 100 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduce market risk-off sentiment. Analysts indicate that the dollar's recent strength was short-lived, signaling a potential return to a "weak dollar" outlook.

The CME's Fed Watch tool indicates a 99.5% probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in April, with similar projections for June showing a 98% likelihood of steady rates and minimal chances for rate cuts or hikes.

Joachim Nagel from the European Central Bank urged against providing forward guidance on interest rates, citing uncertainties about inflation linked to rising energy prices. He warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict is dampening Germany's economic growth prospects, prompting a downward revision of forecasts.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDHUF (US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint) has surged by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that, given current conditions, the central bank might reduce interest rates only three times for the rest of the year.

Federal Reserve official John Williams affirmed a steady monetary policy outlook, projecting 2% to 2.5% economic growth and stable unemployment around 4.25% to 4.5%. Inflation is expected to decrease from 2.75% to 3% in 2026 to 2% in 2027.

The Trump administration will not renew sanctions waivers for Iranian and Russian oil, prompting threats of secondary sanctions against countries, particularly China, buying Iranian oil. This decision ends efforts to stabilize global oil prices amidst ongoing Middle East tensions.

Austan Goolsbee warns that high oil prices from the Iran war may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates until 2027, prolonging inflation above the 2% target and leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate scenario.

Indonesia's rupiah has hit a record low against the Singapore dollar due to rising oil prices and capital outflows from financial markets. Concerns about demand for Singaporean services and export flows to Indonesia are growing. The central bank's interventions aim to stabilize the currency.

Eurozone consumer price inflation rose to 2.6% in March, surpassing February's 1.9% and the initial estimate of 2.5%. Core CPI fell slightly to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in February.

Rising hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire have spurred a global market rally, with stock indices hitting record highs and risk sentiment improving. As tensions ease, oil prices stabilize, the dollar weakens, and investor focus shifts to corporate earnings and growth amid declining inflation concerns.

Franklin Templeton's Sonar Desai asserts that the U.S. dollar will retain its status as the preferred global currency due to the size of the U.S. economy, market depth, and institutional credibility. He argues that no credible alternatives exist and that the dollar's current weakness is cyclical, not structural.