新台幣本週強勢反彈，在外資大舉買超台股、資金集中匯入的推波助瀾下，銀行收盤匯率從上週二（4/7）的 31.967 一路走升，至週四（4/16）收在 31.556，單週升值逾 0.4 元、升幅約 1.29%，創下近一個半月以來新高。
外資掃貨、股匯雙漲是核心驅動力
4 月 16 日成為這波行情最具代表性的一日。台股當天大漲逾百點，外資單日買超台股金額達約 440 億元，新台幣盤中一度升破 31.6 元關卡。台北及元太外匯市場合計成交金額爆增至 36.98 億美元，屬明顯放量，通常意味著市場存在大量匯入與拋匯需求，這正是熱錢流入的典型特徵：股票、匯市同步走強，形成外資進場的正向循環。
市場認為，美伊協議前景偏樂觀讓全球風險情緒升溫，亞洲新興市場普遍受惠，而台灣因台積電等科技權值股的吸引力，成為外資重點布局標的，資金磁吸效應尤為突出。
升勢並非一帆風順，央行暗中調節
值得注意的是，週一（4/13）匯率出現小幅回貶至 31.785，顯示市場並非單邊走勢。此外，包括央行官員及市場交易員均指出，每當外資集中且大量匯入時，央行通常會在匯市進行適度調節，避免新台幣升值過快而衝擊出口競爭力，這也是這波升值幅度尚屬可控的關鍵因素之一。
今日（4/17）出現技術回調
進入 4 月 17 日，美元指數跌深後出現反彈，由 97.83 低點回升至 98.22 附近；與此同時台股開盤翻黑，帶動新台幣早盤以 31.59 元開出，一度回貶至 31.6 元。玉山銀行今日掛牌的即期匯率顯示，買入為 31.525、賣出為 31.625，仍維持在相對強勢區間。後市觀察重點仍是外資是否延續匯入
目前市場最關鍵的變數有二：其一是外資後續能否持續匯入並維持台股買超；其二是美元能否在當前水位找到支撐、進一步反彈。若台股維持高檔、外資持續增持，分析師預期台幣短線仍將維持偏強格局；但若美元急速反彈或全球風險情緒出現逆轉，則這波熱錢進場的動能可能面臨考驗。
這篇文章 熱錢湧進台灣！新台幣匯率強升逾 1.2%，創近一個半月新高 最早出現於 鏈新聞 ABMedia。
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