20 April, spot gold opened with a gap down, currently trading around $4770 per ounce, down about 1.3%. Last Friday night, gold prices surged to near $4890, then profit-taking emerged, closing at $4832. Over the weekend, Middle East tensions fluctuated and the dollar strengthened, driving gold prices sharply lower at the open.

Current gold prices have broken below the daily MA10 (about $4815), with the 1-hour MACD showing increasing green bars and a death cross downward, indicating strong short-term bearish momentum. However, the support at around $4770 is the lower boundary of recent consolidation, and if it holds, a rebound may be possible. Resistance above is at the $4810-4815 zone; only a break through this level can ease the short-term downward pressure. The key support below is at the $4700 round number, which is also the position of the weekly MA5; if lost, further testing of the previous low may occur.

Dollar and interest rates: The dollar index rebounded to 98.42 on the weekly chart, directly suppressing dollar-denominated gold. US inflation data remains volatile, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have cooled significantly. US Treasury yields remain high, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding gold.

Geopolitics: Tensions between the US and Iran fluctuated over the weekend. Iran explicitly refused to participate in a second round of negotiations. The US fired on Iranian commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. Although risk aversion sentiment has cooled in the short term, deep-seated conflicts remain, with the ceasefire on April 22 being a key point.

Global gold ETFs continued to record net inflows for the seventh consecutive quarter, but in March, net outflows reached $12 billion, a record high, offset by large-scale sell-offs in North America and continued net inflows in Asia. In the short term, some risk-averse funds that had taken profits earlier are exiting, increasing gold price volatility.

Several institutions maintain a medium- to long-term bullish outlook: UBS expects the average gold price in 2026 to reach $5000, Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential surge to $5400 before the end of the year, and Swiss Reinsurers stick to a year-end target of $6000. In the short term, after a high-level pullback, gold prices are entering a correction phase, with focus on the US-Iran situation and dollar index changes. Whether the support zone at $4770-4700 can hold will determine the depth and duration of this correction. #Gate13周年现场直击