17 April, Iran announced that during the 10-day ceasefire window with the United States, it would resume commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing macro risk sentiment, and BTC subsequently rebounded about 2.77%.

On the surface, market sentiment is turning positive, and funds are beginning to bet on further upward movement; but on-chain data reveals a different signal—chip distribution and profit-taking status show that selling pressure is gradually accumulating above.
This type of rally driven by macro events often features "sentiment first, funds lagging," and once the new momentum cannot be sustained, prices are more likely to enter a correction and rebalancing phase.
The key to the current market is not the good news itself, but whether funds will continue to buy after the good news.
In the short term, beware of the classic path of "good news realized → sharp rise and then fall back."
Follow me to penetrate the surface of sentiment and see through the true fund logic of the crypto market.