#美联储维持利率不变 Federal Reserve "Hawks" Hold Steady: High Interest Rates' "Binding Spell" Remains in Place

In the early hours of March 19 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates anchored at the 3.50%-3.75% range for the second consecutive time. Although "no rate cut" aligned with market expectations, the hawkish signals released after the meeting directly shattered market illusions about monetary easing.

Key Takeaways: Dot Plot "Shrinkage" and Stagflation Concerns

Rate Cut Expectations Reduced: The dot plot shows only 1 rate cut in 2026, with the number of officials supporting "no rate cut" increasing to 7, meaning "higher rates for longer" has become consensus.

Inflation Resurgence: Driven by Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices and tariff impacts, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its 2026 core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. Powell stated plainly "no rate cuts if inflation makes no progress," and internal discussions even touched on the possibility of "rate hikes next."

Market Impact: Crypto and U.S. Stocks Decline Together

Following the decision, Bitcoin dropped below $71,000, and the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower. The sustained high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk appetite, with funds flowing back to dollar assets for safety. For the crypto community, the "liquidity faucet" of monetary easing remains tightened in the short term, with markets needing to digest macro pressures amid volatility.