#通货膨胀 The Fed's recent actions are worth paying close attention to. Powell's statements are very crucial—inflation risk is "tilted to the upside," which is not something said casually. Coupled with the dot plot data, there is only one rate cut in 2026-2027, and no rate cut expectations for next year, indicating that the policy shift is already quite clear.

Reactions on the chain also confirm this. Bitcoin initially surged past 94,000 after Powell's speech but immediately retreated, and the current quote is at 91,918. This rapid correction indicates that the market's perception of the "end of the easing cycle" is adjusting quickly. The previously expected "soft landing + continued rate cuts" narrative is breaking down.

What is worth noting is that labor market data has become a key variable. Powell emphasized that "only a significant deterioration in the employment market will lead to further rate cuts," which means that each subsequent employment report could change market pricing. If non-farm payrolls remain resilient, the Fed will likely hold, which will directly suppress risk assets.

The current issue is not whether to cut rates or not, but whether inflation stickiness can fall back to the target. From a capital perspective, under this policy uncertainty, institutions may adopt a wait-and-see approach, waiting for market sentiment and data to become clearer before positioning. Short-term volatility will intensify.