The possibility of US-Iran negotiations leads to a decline in international oil prices

International oil prices on the 24th resurfaced due to the possibility of resuming negotiations between the US and Iran, ending the recent continuous upward trend, and showing a decline after five trading days. Military tensions in the Middle East previously pushed up oil prices, but expectations of diplomatic engagement this time partially alleviated concerns over supply disruptions, changing the market direction.

On that day, at the ICE Futures Exchange, June-delivered Brent crude futures closed at $105.33 per barrel, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for June delivery also fell 1.51%, closing at $94.40 per barrel. Despite the weak performance in a single day, from a weekly perspective, Brent crude rose about 16%, and WTI increased approximately 13%, indicating the recent market turbulence.

The background for the oil price retracement is related to news about the US and Iran delegations heading to Pakistan. CNN reported that US President Donald Trump plans to send Middle East envoy Steve Vickoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan this weekend to negotiate with Iran. White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt also confirmed that the two will depart for Pakistan on the morning of the 25th to hold talks with the Iranian delegation. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in Islamabad.

However, the likelihood of successful negotiations has not been fully confirmed. Iran’s IRIB television reported the visit of Foreign Minister Araghchi to Islamabad but also pointed out that no meetings with the US side were scheduled during this visit. This contradictory signal further increased market instability. Especially with the tense situation around the crucial global oil transit route, the Strait of Hormuz, investors are continuously readjusting prices between the possibilities of expanded conflict and diplomatic easing.

The market does not view this fluctuation as a simple one-day correction. Macquarie Group’s Thierry Ezman explained that recent trends indicate a spreading awareness: that the military conflict between the US and Iran has entered its final stages or is a thing of the past, and the focus is now shifting to economic pressure and negotiations. In the future, international oil prices are likely to continue experiencing significant volatility depending on whether negotiations can actually proceed and the security of the Strait of Hormuz can be guaranteed.