Hidden On-Chain Signal Indicating Bitcoin Is Approaching the Bottom

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Beincrypto
Hidden On-Chain Signal Indicating Bitcoin Is Approaching the Bottom
Apr 12, 2026 23:11 GMT+3 Reading time: 7 minutes

BTCUSD
+2.28%
Bitcoin is currently trading at one of the most critical levels in the cycle. On one side, on-chain long-term support, and on the other, a strong resistance wall formed by millions of short-term investors nursing losses.

Spot price 70,925 dollars
Weekly change 2,74%
Weekly RSI (14) 33,59
Drop from ATH 43%
Together with Glassnode’s latest on-chain indicators, along with weekly and daily technical charts, we look at Bitcoin’s current position today and what could happen in the next steps. Two clear scenarios emerge.

How Much Can Bitcoin Drop? Four Critical Cost Levels!

Glassnode’s latest Risk Indicator chart presents four important on-chain price models together with the Bitcoin spot price. These indicators clearly show where we stand based on the costs of various investor groups in the market.

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Crypto Market

News
More with News Feed

Turkish
Select market data provided by ICE Data Services.
Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc.
Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved.
SEC filings and other documents provided by Quartr.
© 2026 TradingView, Inc.

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C63 TradeTime
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Lightweight Charts™
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Close

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Beincrypto
Hidden On-Chain Signal Indicating Bitcoin Is Approaching the Bottom
Apr 12, 2026 23:11 GMT+3 Reading time: 7 minutes

BTCUSD
+2.25%
Bitcoin is currently trading at one of the most critical levels in the cycle. On one side, on-chain long-term support, and on the other, a strong resistance wall formed by millions of short-term investors nursing losses.

Spot price 70,925 dollars
Weekly change 2,74%
Weekly RSI (14) 33,59
Drop from ATH 43%
Together with Glassnode’s latest on-chain indicators, along with weekly and daily technical charts, we look at Bitcoin’s current position today and what could happen in the next steps. Two clear scenarios emerge.

How Much Can Bitcoin Drop? Four Critical Cost Levels!

Glassnode’s latest Risk Indicator chart presents four important on-chain price models together with the Bitcoin spot price. These indicators clearly show where we stand based on the costs of various investor groups in the market.

Glassnode’s Risk Indicator
Realized price — 54.000 dollars
It is the average cost of all coins on the network. When Bitcoin trades above this level, it shows that most are in profit. This level, which is the most fundamental support in the long term, is currently well below the spot price. This is thus a structurally positive sign.

Real market average — 82.000 dollars
A more sensitive cost level weighted according to actual economic activity, excluding dormant coins. Right now, the spot price is below this level: it means a significant portion of active participants are in losses.

Active investor average — 88.000 dollars
The average cost of active investors. When the price is traded clearly below this level, pressure builds in the market, and this level becomes a serious resistance.

Short-term investor cost — (83–84.000 dollars)
The average entry price of coins held for less than 155 days by recent buyers. Right now, spot is far below these levels: short-term investors are sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, this situation usually increases selling pressure, but it can also be a prerequisite for a capitulation bottom.

The core message here is this: the 70,925 dollar spot price is only above the realized price, while the other three indicators are below.

This has pushed Bitcoin historically into a point known as the “stress zone.” As in the deep bear market we experienced in 2022, (at that time the price also fell below the realized price). Even though it was not the exact bottom, we are in a correction phase in the middle of the cycle—especially with short-term investors in loss and selling pressure building up.

Macro Chart: Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Since August 2020, the weekly chart has been revealing Bitcoin’s macro technical outlook.

Bitcoin peaked around 126.000 dollars in October 2025, and since then has pulled back by about 43%.

The current price is retesting (the all-time high of the 2021 cycle, approximately 69.000 dollars, the yellow line) again. Historically, this level is a critical threshold where resistance turns into long-term support. The week’s green candle indicates that defense attempts have started in this region.
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