Israel heavily bombs Lebanon; Iran states that bilateral ceasefire and negotiations are no longer reasonable.

Written by: Xiao Yanyan, Jin10 Data

According to a Reuters report, Israel launched what is currently the most intense airstrikes on Lebanon as of Wednesday, killing hundreds of people so far and prompting Iran’s retaliatory threat. Iran indicated that pushing ahead with negotiations with the United States to reach a permanent peace agreement in this context would be “unreasonable.”

This warning, issued by Iran’s chief negotiator and chairman of the Majlis, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf (Mohammed Bager Qalibaf), exposed the ongoing turmoil in the region following President Trump’s announcement on Tuesday of a ceasefire agreement. The two sides have proposed sharply different agendas for peace talks set to begin on Saturday, but it is still unclear whether the two-week ceasefire can last until then.

Qalibaf said that Israel has intensified its war against Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran, and has already violated multiple conditions of the ceasefire agreement, while the United States insists that Iran give up its nuclear ambitions, thereby violating the agreement.

In a statement, Qalibaf said that three key provisions in the 10-point proposal had already been violated before the talks even started. This includes:

1. Failure to comply with the provisions in the 10-point proposal regarding achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon—Pakistan’s prime minister has clearly mentioned and claimed that it is an “immediate, comprehensive ceasefire in all places, including Lebanon and other areas”;

2. An invading drone entered Iranian airspace and was destroyed in Lal, Fars Province, which is a clear violation of the provisions prohibiting any further infringement of Iranian airspace;

3. Denial of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, which is included in Article 6 of the framework.

Qalibaf said that now, the “practical and feasible conditions” that should have served as the basis for the talks have been openly and explicitly undermined, and that was already the case even before the talks began. Under these circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or conducting negotiations is unreasonable.

According to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, if Israel continues its offensive in Lebanon, Iran may withdraw from the agreement announced by Trump.

Both Israel and the United States have said that the two-week ceasefire does not cover Lebanon. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said the airstrikes will continue.

“I think Iranians think a ceasefire includes Lebanon, but that’s not true,” Vance, the vice president who will lead the U.S. delegation, told reporters in Budapest.

The two sides also appear to be far apart on Iran’s nuclear issue—one of the war justifications Trump cited.

Trump said Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment activities (uranium can be used to make nuclear weapons), while the White House said Iran has indicated it will transfer its existing stockpiles.

“The United States will work with Iran to dig up and clear out all deeply buried… nuclear ‘dust,’” Trump said on social media.

However, Qalibaf said that under the ceasefire terms, Iran is allowed to continue uranium enrichment activities.

Despite both the United States and Iran declaring victory in this war, which has already killed thousands of people and has lasted more than five weeks, the core differences between the two sides have not been resolved. Both sides continue to press their confrontational demands, and the agreement may shape the regional landscape of the Middle East for generations to come.

Despite uncertainty, global stock indexes rose sharply on Wednesday, while oil prices plunged 14%. The settlement price was close to $95 per barrel, and during the day they fell as low as $90.40.

Benchmark Brent crude is still about $25 higher than its peak before the start of the U.S.-Israel joint strike campaign. Despite decades of large-scale military investment by the United States in the region, Tehran’s newly demonstrated ability to cut off Gulf energy supplies through its control of the straits indicates that this conflict has already changed the power dynamics in the Gulf region.

“Finger on the trigger”

Netanyahu said Israel has “its finger on the trigger” and is prepared to “rejoin the fight at any moment.”

Lebanon’s civil defense department said Israel’s airstrikes across all of Lebanon on Wednesday have killed 254 people. The worst casualties were in the capital, Beirut, with 91 deaths. Residents said that some Israeli airstrikes did not issue civilian evacuation warnings in advance as they usually do.

A person with knowledge of the oil industry said that Iran also attacked oil facilities in nearby Gulf countries, including a Saudi oil pipeline used to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE also reported missile and drone strikes.

Reports said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to vessels sailing without permission, and shipping companies said they need clearer information before resuming passage. MarineTraffic data shows that since early Wednesday, two Greek and two Chinese bulk cargo ships have passed through the strait.

Iran’s governing system survives

Large crowds poured into the streets of Iran overnight to celebrate, waving Iranian flags and burning U.S. and Israeli flags. But some people also worry that the agreement will not hold.

“Iran won’t let diplomacy work; Trump may change his mind tomorrow. But at least tonight we don’t have to fall asleep in airstrikes,” Alireza (Alireza), a 29-year-old government employee in Tehran, told Reuters by phone.

The war was launched on February 28 by Trump and Netanyahu. Their goal is to prevent Iran from projecting power beyond its borders, end its nuclear program, and create conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow their rulers. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said on Wednesday that the United States has achieved a decisive military victory.

But so far, Iran has retained both its stockpile of highly enriched uranium close to weapons-grade and its ability to carry out missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries. Even the theocratic leadership that faced major protests months ago has weathered fierce attacks from a superpower and showed no signs of internal collapse.

“The unjust, illegal, and criminal war launched by the enemy against the Iranian nation has suffered an undeniable, historic, and devastating defeat,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said.