Dissecting Stripe's Annual Letter: How stablecoins are becoming the core of B2B payments, and what blockchain AI agents require

In February 2026, the annual open letter jointly released by Stripe co-founders John and Patrick Collison provided two significant reference points for the crypto industry. The letter not only disclosed key business data but also made clear predictions about the future of payments.

On one hand, stablecoin payments showed astonishing growth in 2025, which the founders described as “crypto winter, summer of stablecoins.” On the other hand, Stripe explicitly stated that the concept of AI-automated “agentic commerce” has moved beyond the idea stage and entered a real “building and experimenting” phase. These two narratives are interconnected, pointing toward a future dominated by machines and demanding exponential improvements in underlying settlement networks.

Background and Timeline: From Bridge Acquisition to Tempo Testing

Stripe’s deep involvement in stablecoins began with a key acquisition in 2025. To build end-to-end stablecoin infrastructure, Stripe acquired the stablecoin orchestration platform Bridge and Privy, which supports over 110 million programmable wallets. These moves quickly translated into business growth.

By early 2026, Stripe’s strategic pace accelerated further. The company obtained a national bank trust charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), clearing regulatory hurdles for its stablecoin expansion. Meanwhile, the blockchain Tempo, developed jointly with Paradigm and designed specifically for payments, entered the testnet phase, with institutions like Visa, Nubank, and Shopify participating. The mainnet launch is imminent. This timeline clearly illustrates Stripe’s evolution from a software service provider to a foundational financial infrastructure player.

Data and Structural Analysis: The Structural Shift Behind $400 Billion

Stripe’s annual disclosures reveal structural changes in the stablecoin sector. According to a McKinsey report cited in the letter and Stripe’s own data, stablecoin payment volume doubled in 2025, reaching approximately $390–$400 billion. Notably, about 60% of this volume came from business-to-business (B2B) transactions, rather than individual cross-border remittances.

This data challenges the stereotype that stablecoins are mainly used for retail “fund in/out” or speculation. The rise of B2B scenarios indicates stablecoins are penetrating core commercial areas like global supply chains and cross-border service settlements. Stripe’s platform saw total payment volume (TPV) reach $1.9 trillion in 2025, a 34% increase year-over-year, with stablecoin payments being a key driver. The transaction volume on Bridge, acquired by Stripe, grew over fourfold, further confirming this trend.

Public Opinion and Perspectives: Optimism Meets Technical Realism

Market interpretations of Stripe’s annual letter generally fall into two camps.

Optimists focus on the “paradigm shift” value of stablecoins. Venture capital firm a16z elaborated in an analysis why AI agents need stablecoins: AI agents behave more like enterprises than tourists, requiring long-term, programmable credit relationships with suppliers rather than instant retail settlements. The programmability, low cost, and global nature of stablecoins make them inherently suitable for handling vast micro-payments and streaming payments between AI agents and platforms.

Technical realists, however, emphasize the challenges highlighted by Stripe. They warn that if AI agents become the primary executors of internet transactions, blockchain networks might need to support throughput of 1 billion transactions per second (TPS). Currently, leading public chains like Solana and ICP have daily TPS just above 1,000, with maximum theoretical limits far below 1 billion. Stripe cites the congestion and fee spikes caused by the 2025 memecoin frenzy as an example, pointing out that even current transaction densities expose blockchain fragility, and future AI-driven demand will magnify these issues.

Narrative Authenticity: From “Speculative Vehicles” to “Payment Tools”

For a long time, the crypto industry has faced a narrative dilemma of “seeking real-world application.” Stripe’s annual letter provides key evidence that stablecoins are increasingly decoupling from crypto asset prices.

Factually: In 2025, Bitcoin prices declined, yet stablecoin payment volume doubled. This divergence strongly indicates that current growth is driven not by crypto speculation but by real economic payment needs.

From a perspective standpoint: Stripe sees stablecoins as becoming “a core component of global payment infrastructure.” While this view is from a stakeholder with vested interests, its basis—platform transaction volume of $1.9 trillion and serving over 5 million businesses (covering 90% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average)—provides solid business logic.

Speculatively: The assertion that AI agents require 1 billion TPS is based on the exponential growth of AI agents and their transaction frequency far surpassing humans. Although current AI agents are only transitioning from level 1 to level 2 capabilities (automated form filling and descriptive search), Stripe’s collaboration with OpenAI on developing “agentic business protocols” (ACP) indicates industry leaders are preparing for explosive growth in levels 3 to 5 (persistent memory, task delegation, predictive services).

Industry Impact Analysis: Restarting the Infrastructure Arms Race

Stripe’s annual letter will influence the crypto industry on multiple levels:

First: Re-evaluation of public chain performance standards. If the logic of AI agent commerce holds, the current narrative of “sufficient speed” for public chains will be overturned. Industry focus will shift from “supporting DeFi and gaming” to “supporting massive, real-time machine economies.” Pursuit of high TPS, low latency, and interoperability will become the next technical battleground.

Second: Deepening stablecoin application scenarios. The rising share of B2B payments will push stablecoins from “cross-border remittance tools” toward “enterprise working capital management platforms.” This will require issuers and wallet providers to offer more complex reconciliation, invoicing, and credit functions, as envisioned by a16z’s “agent platform managing supplier relationships.”

Third: Regulatory and compliance frameworks. Stripe’s obtaining of a national bank trust license signals that major payment institutions are attempting to integrate stablecoin activities into existing financial regulations. This could provide a compliance foundation for other crypto firms but may also accelerate industry segmentation: compliant stablecoins becoming mainstream infrastructure, while fully anonymous crypto assets risk marginalization.

Multi-Scenario Evolution Projections

Based on current information, the narrative could evolve into three scenarios:

Conclusion

Stripe’s annual letter acts like a prism, reflecting the core contradictions facing the crypto industry over the next five years: on one side, unstoppable B2B stablecoin penetration; on the other, current blockchain tech’s inability to handle future AI-driven transaction volumes. From “crypto winter” to “stablecoin summer,” what’s changing is not just temperature but the industry’s fundamental value—shifting from speculation to serving the real economy and machine economy. For builders, the 1 billion TPS challenge posed by Stripe is both a warning and a clear roadmap for the next-generation value internet.