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石油是第一张多米诺骨牌,粮食总是接踵而至。
自2020年以来,每一次原油价格大幅上涨都在几个月后引发全球粮食价格的大幅飙升。我们现在看到的是多年来最陡峭的油价反弹。其上升速度快于2022年的供应冲击。
滞后期通常是2到4个月。粮食指数还没有变动,但这种模式非常清晰。这通常会导致更多通胀和宏观环境收紧,对$BTC等风险资产不利。
你为第二波通胀做了对冲准备吗?