2026年投资ideas：AI能源和基础设施股的掘金机会

The stock market in 2026 is shaping up to be an exciting year for growth-focused investors. Two powerful macro trends—accelerating AI-driven earnings expansion and declining interest rates—are creating compelling entry points into best-in-class technology and energy plays. Here’s where smart money is looking.

Why 2026 Could Be a Breakout Year

Two factors dominate stock market performance: corporate earnings and borrowing costs. On the earnings front, the picture has brightened considerably. Wall Street is forecasting S&P 500 earnings growth of 12.3% for 2026, up from this year’s estimated 11.4%.

The real story, however, lies in AI infrastructure investment. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta—the world’s largest AI operators—are expected to spend approximately $400 billion on data center buildouts in 2025 alone, a staggering jump from just $120 billion in 2018. This spending spree will likely accelerate further into 2026.

Globally, companies are channeling $7 trillion into data center infrastructure by 2030. This represents a once-in-a-generation capital cycle—the kind that can reshape entire sectors and create millionaire-making opportunities for early investors.

Meanwhile, Fed rate cuts appear increasingly likely as policymakers balance inflation concerns with employment goals. Recent market volatility has cooled some of the AI euphoria, offering tactical entry points into high-quality stocks at more reasonable valuations.

The AI Energy Play: First Solar’s Breakout Setup

First Solar (FSLR) stands out as North America’s only major solar equipment manufacturer, positioning it to capitalize on America’s push for energy independence and AI data center power demands.

Here’s the compelling case: Solar is capturing over 50% of new U.S. utility-scale electricity generation capacity in 2025—crushing battery storage (29%), wind (12%), and natural gas (7%). Tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft are racing to secure renewable power for their data center expansions, creating massive demand tailwinds.

The fundamentals look strong. First Solar projects revenue growth of 22% annually through 2026, pushing total sales to $6.27 billion (versus $4.21 billion in 2024). More importantly, adjusted earnings per share is forecast to soar 22% this year and 59% in 2026 to $23.30—nearly doubling 2024’s level of $12.02.

First Solar’s balance sheet is fortress-like: $13.5 billion in assets against just $4.4 billion in liabilities. The company’s 53.7 GW booking backlog extends through 2030, providing visibility into years of revenue generation. Current expansion plans in Alabama, Louisiana, and elsewhere are funded and underway.

Valuation matters too. FSLR trades at 11.1X forward earnings—a 53% discount to the S&P 500 and 38% below the Zacks solar industry average. The stock sits roughly 12% below its 2024 highs, suggesting the 305% gain over the past decade hasn’t run out of steam. With 24 of 33 analyst recommendations rated “Strong Buy,” institutional investors are clearly positioning ahead of the curve.

The AI Infrastructure Play: Arista Networks’ Networking Dominance

Arista Networks (ANET) is the picks-and-shovels play on AI data centers. This company essentially provides the networking infrastructure that keeps hyperscale operations humming—think of it as the “plumbing” behind AI’s explosive growth.

Meta and Microsoft rank among Arista’s largest customers, validating the quality of its product suite. ANET has engineered a powerful client-to-cloud networking platform purpose-built for AI data centers, hyperscale routing, and enterprise environments.

The growth trajectory is striking. Revenue expanded from $361 million in 2013 to $7 billion in 2024, driven by 32% average sales growth over the trailing four years. Forward projections show 27% revenue growth in 2025 and 21% in 2026, pushing total sales past $10.73 billion by 2026—more than doubling the 2022 baseline.

Balance sheet strength underpins future expansion. Arista boasts $10.1 billion in cash and equivalents with zero debt, providing significant dry powder for R&D, M&A, or shareholder returns.

The equity performance speaks volumes. ANET has surged roughly 2,800% over the past decade—outpacing five of the Magnificent 7, including Meta and Microsoft themselves. Yet despite this stellar run, the stock trades 20% below its all-time highs and 33% below Zacks’ average price target of $4 per share by 2028 (versus $2.27 in 2025).

Technical support near the 200-day moving average suggests consolidation rather than capitulation. Once the stock breaks above early 2025 resistance levels, the path to new all-time highs appears clear.

The Bottom Line

These investment ideas offer contrasting yet complementary angles on the AI supercycle. First Solar captures the energy infrastructure boom, while Arista captures the networking and connectivity requirements powering data centers worldwide. Both trade at reasonable entry points as 2026 approaches, making them worthy candidates for any growth-focused portfolio focused on AI-driven secular tailwinds.