Radian Group Stock Faces Mixed Signals Despite Analyst Optimism on RDN

On December 18, 2025, analyst firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterated its Market Perform stance on Radian Group (NYSE: RDN), signaling a cautious approach to the mortgage insurance sector. The rating reflects balanced risk-reward dynamics in the current market environment.

Price Target Signals Limited Near-Term Upside

According to the consensus forecast as of December 5, 2025, Wall Street projects an average 12-month price target of $39.78 per share for Radian Group, suggesting a modest 7.57% upside from the latest closing price of $36.98. Price projections across analyst coverage range between $35.35 on the conservative end to $47.25 for bull-case scenarios. This relatively narrow band reflects uncertainty around the company’s near-term trajectory. Meanwhile, the projected annual revenue stands at 971 million, representing a significant 23.78% year-over-year contraction, while non-GAAP EPS is forecasted at 2.66.

Institutional Repositioning Shows Nuanced Risk Assessment

The ownership landscape for RDN reveals interesting divergence among major market participants. Approximately 750 funds and institutions currently maintain positions in Radian Group, up 6 holders or 0.81% last quarter. However, total institutional shareholding actually declined 3.18% over the three-month period to 158.184 million shares, suggesting selective profit-taking despite new entry. The average fund allocation to RDN stands at 0.20% of portfolios, up 5.13% from prior quarter figures.

Key Holders Adjust Exposure Amid Market Uncertainty

iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) maintains the largest position at 6.618 million shares (4.88% ownership), unchanged from the prior quarter, indicating passive tracker stability.

LSV Asset Management reduced its stake from 6.108 million to 5.975 million shares, cutting portfolio allocation by 7.20%—a signal of decreased conviction among value-focused investors.

Charles Schwab Investment Management marginally increased holdings from 5.893 million to 5.896 million shares but simultaneously trimmed portfolio weighting by 7.14%, suggesting a rebalancing rather than conviction-driven move.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund pulled back notably, dropping from 4.613 million to 4.310 million shares (7.05% reduction), with portfolio allocation sliding 9.22% as one of the largest index trackers adjusts to market conditions.

Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) bucked the trend, expanding from 3.961 million to 4.253 million shares (+6.86%), with portfolio allocation jumping 14.97%—an outlier position among dividend-focused strategies.

Options Market Sentiment Leans Bullish

The put-to-call ratio for RDN stands at 0.39, indicating a notably bullish options positioning relative to more neutral or bearish sectors. This metric suggests that options traders remain optimistic despite fundamental headwinds, though such positioning can quickly reverse in volatile markets.

The mixed messaging between equity fund flows (net selling), analyst ratings (hold-equivalent stance), and options market sentiment (bullish skew) reflects the market’s struggle to price Radian Group’s exposure to mortgage insurance dynamics and broader housing market cycles.