Ethereum Support Level: 2100 Strong Support Level Below: 1937 Resistance Level: 2380 Current Trend: Narrow fluctuations, leaning towards a downward correction, short-term support: 2155 Current Volatility Range: 2180–2248 Ethereum is currently in a descending arc top pattern

In the afternoon, Bitcoin Auntie also synchronized the short positions. The first target was perfectly achieved, both giving a 2000/100 point space. Choosing the right direction makes twice the result with half the effort. Stay committed to the layout, and you will eventually reap steady profits!$BTC $ETH #加密市场隔夜V型震荡

This article was not written by me personally. I think it’s quite well written, so I’m sharing it here for everyone’s reference: "On Trading - Environment, Stages, and Technical Analysis" I wonder if everyone has ever thought about why sometimes the same pattern, such as a consolidation range, can break out successfully, while other times it fails. Why do some breakouts lead to a 3% increase, others to 5%, 10%... The overall reason lies at the level of the market environment. It’s driven by heat, sentiment, and human nature. This is the most important layer, similar to our four seasons—spring, summer, autumn, winter. When the market is hot, it’s like summer; even fools can make money rushing in, like the recent gold rush. In the market, spring, summer, autumn, and winter can generally be understood as: Spring is the BTC bottoming phase, where Bitcoin is just recovering, and only the leading altcoins will rise. Summer is the wild bull market / main upward wave for BTC, with divergence and oscillation during the rise, but the market still goes up. During this phase, trash coins can fly, and even fools can make money. Autumn is BTC at high levels with stagnation or slight decline, like grasshoppers after autumn. Going long is risky of being trapped, going short is risky of being squeezed out. It’s extremely difficult. Winter is the downward trend / freezing point, and currently, we are in winter. To further subdivide in crypto: Early Spring: Only BTC rises independently, Bitcoin’s market share increases. Altcoins lie dormant. Midsummer: ETH takes over, ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthens. Peak Summer: Large-cap altcoins generally rise, a bloom of different projects. Crazy Summer ( season-end ): Meme coins / “dirt dogs” fly wildly, trash assets double in value. Autumn: BTC stagnates, funds flow back into USDT, and USDT’s market cap share begins to rise. Winter: Total collapse. Currently, funds, heat, and sentiment are very low, and the environment is a typical winter. For example, the previous BTC head and shoulders bottom pattern, the same pattern tends to break out easily in spring and summer, but in winter, it’s prone to failure. Even if it breaks out successfully, the profit-taking expectation will be greatly reduced. It’s not because the structure is wrong, but because the environment is wrong. Once you understand the environment, you should consider the current market stage: Bottoming, small divergence rally, large divergence rally, second wave initiation, trend top, downward oscillation. Different market stages come with different entry techniques and profit-taking expectations. Currently, we are in stage 6, the decline phase. Different systems also divide stages differently. For example, Wyckoff’s phases are: accumulation with oscillation, markup, distribution at the top, decline, repeating cyclically. Finally, there’s technical analysis, which is the most fundamental. This includes various technical indicators. These should be considered only after understanding the environment and stages, and managing position sizes. In other words, no matter how skilled your technical analysis is, if you only rely on it and ignore the environment and stages, you will never achieve stable profits. Currently, we are in a downtrend during winter, so technically, the most prudent approach in this environment and stage is to wait for a bottoming and oscillation to form a high point, then short at the high. Similar to the previous bear flag consolidation at the high, we have been closing many short positions over the past week because this technical setup aligns with the environment and stage expectations, so the technical analysis is effective. Based on this, the current trading frequency should be very low. Because, in the current environment and stage, waiting for the right technical signals to enter can take a long time (waiting for a new oscillation high after the bottom). If you must incorporate short-term factors and open a position at this point, the success rate will be very low because it doesn’t align with the environment and stage. Without waiting for the right technical setup to form, the failure rate will be high. Finally, I recommend reducing capital and trading frequency during this cycle. Wait until the right moment to trade, and when the signal appears, it will prompt you. Then, trade with a normal position size.