Non-believers will always be non-believers.

Author: Liu Jiao Lian

Tip:

During the weekend, BTC rose slightly above 84k. Today in the 3.23 educational chain reference “Week 11 Market Sideways Low-level Fluctuation Viewing Bullish and Bearish Perspectives Divergence,” it was mentioned that an executive board meeting for the first quarter was held in the afternoon. I originally intended to write a brief introduction and outline for the speech in the reference, but due to time constraints, I completely forgot. Therefore, I will make a small summary here after the meeting to make up for it.

At this conference, the keynote speech of the teaching chain mainly shared a review of the market development over the past period and an interpretation of the situation. The focus was on reviewing the events from the year-end private board meeting in the fourth quarter of last year 2024 to the present, as well as discussing the recovery process of this round of bull market since the end of 2022, and the similarities and differences in patterns between this cycle and previous cycles.

The teaching chain starts from the changes in the global geopolitical situation and then extends to the macroeconomic cycle, using the above two layers as the macro background for the cryptocurrency market, leading into an analysis of the cryptocurrency market cycle. It first delves into BTC, which drives bull and bear cycles, discusses market divergences and looks ahead, combining the year-end research report for 2024 to analyze three models of bull market development, and points out the singularity transition and phase change since the beginning of this cycle, as well as the rhythms that may resonate with it from the bull market perspective. From there, it naturally extends to an analysis of the driving factors of altcoins, including ETH, UNI, SOL, etc., the logic behind market rhythms, and the outlook for the remainder of this cycle, among other things.

During a two-hour impromptu sharing session, the teaching chain recalled discussing how ordinary retail investors in this brutally competitive crypto market, akin to a dark forest, may only find a way to win by having insights that lead the market.

What does it mean to have a market-leading understanding? I happened to come across a real case after the meeting.

The comment from this reader in the screenshot below was not selected by the teaching chain because the language was quite crude. The comment was made on July 3, 2024. Which article was being commented on? It was on an earlier article - the teaching chain article from March 16, 2024, titled “BTC currently may not have a long-term downtrend foundation.”

Now it’s the end of March 2025, and we can look back at the timeline:

On March 16, 2024, the teaching chain pointed out in the article that “by the end of this year, we expect to see 100k+ BTC.”

On July 3, 2024, a reader commented, “You can fart about 100,000 by the end of this year!”

On December 5, 2024, BTC closed at $101,000.

On December 17, 2024, BTC reached a new yearly high of 108,000 dollars, closing at 106,000 dollars.

The purpose of this example is not to say that the teaching chain is always correct, but to illustrate what is a lagging market perception, what is a leading market perception, and what it means to be willing and daring to believe in this perception.

Of course, as mentioned in the sharing by the teaching chain, mere awareness is not enough to achieve victory.

Based on correct and leading cognition, can we believe, and if we believe, has it been translated into action? Also, is there enough patience and the strength to maintain that patience to wait, until time ultimately confirms the initial cognition and vision.