Bitcoin (BTC) Final Dip Incoming? This Signal Says the Bull Run Comes Next

Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after its October 2025 peak, and the latest technical signal now points to something that has defined every major bottom in the past decade. The BTC price has already corrected deeply, and a fresh development on the 3-day chart is drawing attention to what could be the final stretch before a new bull market begins.

That setup comes from the interaction between two key indicators. This time, it appeared again at a moment that closely mirrors previous cycle bottoms.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez explains that the crossover between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the 3-day timeframe has repeatedly marked the last phase of downside before a major recovery begins.

A look at past cycles shows a consistent pattern. Bitcoin had already dropped 72% before this signal appeared in December 2014. The market still saw one more sharp decline of about 52% within 23 days before reaching a lasting bottom.

The same structure appeared again in 2018. BTC price had already fallen 67% from its peak when the cross showed up in November. Another decline followed within 33 days, this time close to 50%, which eventually marked the cycle low.

The 2022 cycle followed a similar rhythm, though with a slight twist. Bitcoin dropped about 50% before the cross appeared in May. Another 45% decline came shortly after within 33 days. The market later formed an additional lower low after 156 days, which completed the bear structure before a new uptrend began.

That repeating pattern reveals something important. This signal has never marked the exact bottom immediately. It has consistently appeared just before the final capitulation phase.

• Current Bitcoin Price Structure Closely Mirrors Previous Cycle Patterns
• Potential Bitcoin Price Targets If Final Capitulation Plays Out
• What Happens Next For Bitcoin Depends On This Final Phase

Current Bitcoin Price Structure Closely Mirrors Previous Cycle Patterns

The current BTC price action shows strong similarities to those historical setups. Bitcoin has already declined about 52% from its October 2025 high, which aligns closely with previous cycles before the SMA cross appeared.

Ali Martinez noted that the 3-day SMA cross took place on February 27, 2026. The market is now about 30 days into that signal, which places Bitcoin within the same timing window seen in earlier cycles.

Previous cycles showed that the final leg down typically occurred between 23 and 33 days after the cross. That timeline suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a decisive phase within the next few days.

Another detail stands out. The 3-day timeframe sits between short-term noise and long-term confirmation, which makes it useful for identifying macro turning points without waiting for weekly signals.

Potential Bitcoin Price Targets If Final Capitulation Plays Out

Historical behavior shows that Bitcoin often sees one more aggressive move lower after this signal appears. That final drop has ranged between 40% and 50% in past cycles.

Ali Martinez points to two key levels that could define this phase if history follows a similar path.

A moderate reset could bring BTC price toward $40,000, which represents about a 30% decline from recent levels. A deeper washout could push price closer to $30,000, aligning with the 50% capitulation moves seen in earlier cycles.

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Those levels are not random. Each previous cycle formed its strongest long-term base after that final aggressive decline, which cleared out excess leverage and reset market structure.

That context helps explain why this phase matters. The final drop, if it happens, has historically created the conditions for a sustained bull market.

What Happens Next For Bitcoin Depends On This Final Phase

The next move for Bitcoin now depends on whether this pattern completes as it has in the past. A sharp decline into one of the key zones would likely confirm that the market is entering its final accumulation phase.

A different outcome remains possible. BTC price could stabilize without a deep capitulation and still transition into a recovery phase, though that would break from historical behavior.

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Ali Martinez maintains that the signal itself does not guarantee a drop. It highlights a period where the probability of a final reset increases significantly.

That distinction matters because it frames the current market as a transition zone rather than a confirmed bottom.