Jin10 data reported on June 19 that the Minsheng Macro Research Report stated that at the June meeting, the Federal Reserve (FED) unsurprisingly maintained its consistent stance of "inaction", and it seems that they want to extend the period of "inaction" even longer (more people support not lowering interest rates within the year). In light of consecutive supply shocks, the Federal Reserve (FED) needs more time to assess inflation risks, and considering the current uncertainties in trade, fiscal policies, etc., "waiting" remains the best choice that the Federal Reserve (FED) has to make at present. So, how much longer will the Federal Reserve (FED) wait? We believe that the biggest highlight of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year is that the "hard" data needs to "catch up" on the fall, and in the next quarter, the risk of "stagnation" will again become dominant, which will be an important trigger for the market turning point at the September interest rate meeting.