JPMorgan turns bearish on Tesla ahead of earnings: $145 price target! Expects shares to drop 60%, with Q1 deliveries missing and inventory hitting a record high

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated a “Underweight” rating ahead of Tesla’s Q1 earnings report, with a target price of $145, implying about a 60% downside versus the current share price. Q1 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles fell short of market expectations, and unsold inventory surged to 164,000 vehicles, a record high. In Europe, sales volumes also plunged 50% year to date.
(Background: iShares Bank warned, “Tesla will drop 50%”: target price $130—will it take Bitcoin down with it?)
(Additional context: Musk DOGE dismissed more than a dozen “U.S. digital office” employees, sparking controversy. Leaked recordings from Tesla executives: they want him to leave Tesla.)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Q1 deliveries miss across the board, EPS slashed by a third
• Europe brand crisis, political backlash burns into sales
• The stock is still up 50% versus delivery peak, valuation contradictions hard to explain

Tesla’s Q1 earnings report hasn’t come out yet—CNBC reported that JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman has already issued a warning: maintaining an “Underweight” rating, with a target price set at $145 for December 2026.

Compared with Monday’s closing price of $352.82, this target price implies there is still about 60% room for downside. Tesla is down 22% year to date, and Ryan Brinkman believes this is only “the beginning.”

Q1 deliveries miss across the board, EPS slashed by a third

Q1 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles were below the 372,000-vehicle consensus tracked by Bloomberg, and far short of JPMorgan’s own estimate of 385,000. After the numbers were released, Ryan Brinkman immediately cut his Q1 EPS estimate from $0.43 to $0.30, while market consensus is $0.38.

Full-year 2026 EPS estimates were also lowered, from $2.00 to $1.80. More notably, energy storage installations (Megapack) fell 15% year over year, the first sign of stagnation.

On inventory, unsold vehicles surged to about 164,000 units, setting a new historical record. Cars aren’t selling, yet warehouses are getting fuller and fuller—an alarm bell for any automaker.

Europe brand crisis, political backlash burns into sales

Conditions in Europe are even more direct. At the start of 2026, Tesla’s new-vehicle registrations in Europe’s major markets fell by as much as 50% year over year. JPMorgan called out that, in part, it was driven by consumers’ backlash to Elon Musk’s political involvement.

Elon Musk has been stepping into U.S. politics at a high profile level and deeply engaging in the actions of DOGE, a government efficiency department. He is now paying the price in the European market.

The stock is still up 50% versus the delivery peak, and valuation contradictions are hard to explain

In his report, Ryan Brinkman used wording like “incredible,” and despite weak delivery growth continuing, Tesla’s stock price remains more than 50% higher than it was during the delivery peak in June 2022.

At least through 2030, market consensus expectations for all performance metrics have been significantly reduced, but valuations have not been adjusted accordingly. Ryan Brinkman reminded investors that at this stage they must seriously consider “execution risk” and the “time value of money.”

On April 22, Tesla will release its official Q1 financial results, when these estimate figures and market sentiment will be put to a fresh test.

The above is not investment advice.