95-year-old Buffett’s first visit after stepping down: the market hasn’t bottomed out, and nuclear weapons will be used sooner or later

After Warren Buffett accepted CNBC’s first in-depth interview after officially stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, two of the most weighty remarks sparked widespread discussion in the market: first, the current market is still nowhere near the bottom level where he would be willing to make a major move; second, the use of nuclear weapons at some point in the future is a matter of probability rather than an assumption.

Seven Key Takeaways at a Glance

In a conversation lasting more than an hour, Buffett took clear stances on the following topics:

Retire, but don’t stop: Go to the office as usual every day, and call the CFO before the market opens each day; recently made a “tiny” small trade, without disclosing the ticker; made it clear he won’t make any investment that Greg Abel—his proposed successor CEO—doesn’t agree with

Apple sold too early, but not buying now either: Admitted trimming was too early (his words: “I sold it too soon. But, I bought it even sooner, so.”); pre-tax profit exceeds $100 billion; the current stake still ranks first at 22.6% of the portfolio; he will only buy heavily if Apple falls to some level—“not in this market”

This is not a bottom-fishing moment: Berkshire stock has historically had three drawdowns of more than 50%; the current drop is “not a big deal” by comparison; “not yet the historic moment to create a great opportunity”

The inflation target should be zero: Criticized the Fed’s 2% inflation target as wrong—long-term compounding losses are massive, effectively encouraging consumption rather than saving; he cares even more about the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency

Reboot the charity lunch: Restart after being paused for four years; his partner is NBA star Stephen Curry and his wife; the auction begins on May 7 on eBay with a starting price of $50k; the winner will go to Omaha on June 24 for lunch together with the three of them

Cut ties with Bill Gates: No longer contacts him after the Epstein-related documents were released; the reason is “I don’t want to know too much. I don’t want to be called to testify.”

Nuclear weapons will be used, sooner or later: There are currently nine countries with nuclear weapons worldwide; the most dangerous scenario is when decision-makers know they are not long for this world or face enormous humiliation; within the next 100 to 200 years, the probability event that nuclear weapons are used is, in his view, almost certain to occur

Two Most Far-Reaching Judgments: Market Bottom and Nuclear Threat

The logic behind the nuclear-warfare judgment: Buffett’s remarks are built on a probabilistic framework, not an apocalyptic prophecy. He said that the coexistence of nine nuclear-weapon countries, combined with the unpredictability of some decision-makers under extreme circumstances (he specifically mentioned Iran and North Korea), causes the long-term probability of an accidental trigger to keep accumulating. This judgment comes from a 95-year-old man who lived through the end of World War II, the entire Cold War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis—his concerns don’t come from panic, but from a long-cycle observation of historical patterns.

The standard for the market bottom: The S&P 500 drops about 6% within a year, and Buffett said, “There’s not much to be excited about.” His reference points are Berkshire’s three drawdowns of more than 50%, as well as those historical moments that truly “created big opportunities.” This means that within his mental framework, the real bottom tends to be far deeper than the pain that anyone else can bear.

Frequently Asked Questions

What reference value does Buffett’s “this is not a bottom-fishing moment” judgment have for cryptocurrency investors?

Buffett’s standard is to wait for genuine, system-wide panic and selling, rather than rush into the market when the decline is still small. The same logic applies to the cryptocurrency market—based on the historical “big opportunity” bottom standards described by him, the drawdown from the highs in Bitcoin and Ethereum may still not be sufficient. But at the same time, this implies that Buffett’s bottom standard is far stricter than that of most investors.

Why does Buffett’s critique of the 2% inflation target closely align with the Bitcoin investment narrative?

Buffett’s core argument is that a continuing fiat-currency depreciation system systematically erodes savers’ purchasing power, which structurally aligns closely with Bitcoin supporters’ core thesis—that Bitcoin with a fixed supply can serve as an anti-inflation tool. Although Buffett himself has never endorsed Bitcoin, his criticism of traditional monetary policy provides indirect, elite-layer validation for the logic behind holding certain crypto assets.

Rebooting the charity lunch—could the crypto circle start bidding competitively again?

In 2019, Justin Sun, the founder of TRON, successfully won the bid with $4.57 million, becoming one of the most famous showdowns between the crypto world and the traditional finance world. After that, Buffett donated all the Bitcoin he received from Justin Sun. This time, the auction starting price is $50k, and the partner has changed to the Currys. As of now, no confirmed crypto-industry figure has indicated a willingness to bid, but given the starting price and the ongoing expansion of the crypto market, this possibility cannot be ruled out entirely.