BlockBeats message, April 1, “BTC OG insider whale” agent Garrett Jin commented on the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, saying that Trump stated that if NATO wants oil, it should go get it itself. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said that he has not listed ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open as a military objective; that is the task of other countries.
And both of these people’s views are of little importance. Iran currently has the advantage, holding the cards and the strait. If Iran chooses to negotiate, they will be attacked again later by an enemy that has replenished its military strength—an enemy they cannot trust. If Iran refuses to negotiate, either they will be attacked now by an enemy with an overextended front, or they can get the Strait of Hormuz passage fee for free and obtain real power in the Middle East. The choice is obvious.
According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that “the Strait of Hormuz will remain navigable by the end of April” is as low as 18%.
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