Google’s Willow Chip (Source: reversepcb)

Google’s Willow Chip Launch (Source: reversepcb)

“The rapid advancement of technology has transitioned quantum computing from theoretical concepts to practical reality. Google’s unveiling of the Willow quantum chip in December 2024 has captured widespread attention. This chip marks a significant leap in computational capabilities and introduces a potential challenge to existing encryption systems. In this article, we will delve into the principles of quantum computing, explore the technological breakthrough represented by Google’s Willow chip, examine its potential applications, assess the threat it poses to cryptocurrencies, and discuss how the cryptocurrency industry should prepare for this emerging challenge.

What is Quantum Computing?

Quantum computing is an innovative computational approach grounded in the principles of quantum mechanics, utilizing quantum bits, or qubits, to perform calculations. Unlike classical binary bits, which represent either 0 or 1, qubits can exist simultaneously in a superposition of both states and exhibit intricate correlations through quantum entanglement.

This unique property enables quantum computers to solve specific problems at exponentially faster speeds. For example, tasks like prime factorization, which might take millions of years for traditional computers, could be completed using quantum computing in seconds or minutes. Such capabilities have profound implications for modern cryptography and scientific computing, presenting opportunities and challenges.

Why Are Quantum Computers Faster than Supercomputers?

The advantages of quantum computers stem from three core principles of quantum mechanics:

1. Superposition:

   • A single quantum bit can simultaneously be in a state of 0 and 1, meaning that 𝑛 quantum bits can represent 2^𝑛 possible states. This allows quantum computing to explore multiple possibilities simultaneously, significantly improving efficiency.

2. Entanglement:

   • Quantum entanglement allows two quantum bits to have highly correlated states, even if far apart. This feature enables quantum computers to collaborate quickly during multi-qubit operations, reducing latency.

3. Interference:

   • Quantum computers can manipulate the phase of quantum states to enhance the likelihood of correct answers while reducing the probability of incorrect ones. This ability further boosts both the speed and accuracy of computations.

If quantum computing were to be compared to a maze-solving process, a traditional CPU can only attempt each path one by one, while a GPU can send thousands of agents down different paths simultaneously. A quantum computer, however, would be like having countless shadow clones exploring every path simultaneously until the exit is found.

Google’s Willow Chip Technological Breakthrough

The two most significant achievements of Google’s Willow chip are as follows:

• Willow can exponentially reduce errors, solving a key challenge in quantum error correction that has been pursued for nearly 30 years in this field.
• Willow completed a standard benchmark computation in less than five minutes, a task that would take one of the fastest supercomputers today 10 quintillion years (1025 years)—a number far exceeding the universe’s age.

Google’s latest advancements in quantum computing are centered around the Willow chip. Compared to the earlier Sycamore chip, the Willow chip features 105 qubits, double the number of Sycamore’s. However, the real breakthrough lies in the number of qubits and their quality. The coherence time of Willow’s qubits, known as T1 time, has been significantly improved, increasing by about five times compared to previous chips. This enhancement allows the qubits to store information for a much longer period, which is undoubtedly a key factor in ensuring accuracy and stability, not just a significant increase in scale.

Previously, a core issue with qubits was their fragility. One of the major challenges in quantum computing is that qubits are highly sensitive to external interference, which results in high error rates (the error rate sharply increases as more qubits are added). The Willow chip introduces a technology known as Surface Code Error Correction, which combines physical qubits into more stable logical qubits, significantly reducing the likelihood of errors. This addresses a key challenge that has remained unsolved for nearly 30 years in the quantum computing field.

The Willow chip leverages logical qubits, which enables self-correction and greatly reduces error rates. The core of this technology is Quantum Error Correction (QEC).

Julian Kelly, Director of Quantum Computing Hardware, Introduces Willow and Its Achievements (Source: youtube)

What is Quantum Error Correction?

Quantum Error Correction (QEC) is a method used to address errors that occur during the operation of quantum computers. Since qubits are extremely sensitive—just stray light can cause computational errors—quantum error correction techniques are essential to reduce error rates.

Unlike traditional computers that use parity checks to correct errors, quantum computers cannot directly measure the state of a single qubit to detect errors. Instead, QEC utilizes multiple physical qubits to form a logical qubit. Even if some physical qubits are disturbed, the system can still recover the correct information. In simple terms, the information is distributed across multiple qubits, rather than concentrated in a single qubit, so even if part of the qubits are disturbed, the remaining qubits can still provide enough information to correct the error.

Researchers at Google discovered that by introducing more qubits and performing real-time error correction, they could significantly reduce error rates. They published this breakthrough in the latest issue of Nature magazine, describing it as a “below threshold” progress. This means that as the number of qubits increases, the error rate can decrease exponentially—marking a major milestone in the history of quantum computing.

Applications of Quantum Computing

Drug Development and Material Science

Quantum computing can simulate molecular structures to help researchers quickly predict molecular interactions, thereby accelerating the discovery of new drugs and materials, such as:

• Drug Design: Quantum computing holds the potential to revolutionize drug design by simulating protein folding processes, significantly accelerating the development of cancer treatments or vaccines. For example, during the development of COVID-19 vaccines, quantum computing played an essential role in analyzing protein structures. Fujitsu’s quantum-inspired technology was able to sift through trillions of molecules and identify promising drug candidates in just eight weeks, dramatically reducing the typical drug discovery timeline.
• Material Science: Research new superconducting materials or next-generation battery technologies to enhance electric vehicle battery efficiency and lifespan.

Climate Modeling and Environmental Science

Quantum computing can simulate the complex processes of climate change to help researchers understand environmental shifts and find solutions:

• Climate Simulation: Predicting future global warming trends and providing data to support the formulation of emission reduction policies.
• Energy Distribution Optimization: Assisting researchers in designing more efficient power grid systems to optimize energy distribution and reduce waste. For example, Fujitsu partnered with the Port of Hamburg to use quantum-inspired computing to optimize traffic signals in the port area. This reduces congestion and pollution, leading to more efficient energy usage.

New Energy and Nuclear Fusion

Quantum computing can simulate atomic and molecular behavior, speeding up research in nuclear fusion technology and the development of more efficient energy systems:

• Nuclear Fusion Reaction Simulation: Quantum computing aids researchers in understanding the complex conditions required for nuclear fusion reactions, playing a pivotal role in advancing the clean energy revolution.
• Battery Technology Improvement: By simulating chemical reactions at the molecular level, quantum computing can help design more efficient and environmentally friendly batteries. For example, Daimler, in collaboration with IBM, leveraged quantum computing to simulate the behavior of sulfur molecules, which contributed to the development of higher-performance, longer-lasting lithium-sulfur batteries.

Transportation and Logistics

• Flight Scheduling: IBM employs quantum computing to simultaneously optimize fleet management, crew assignments, and passenger factors, delivering the most efficient solutions for accelerating the recovery of flight operations.
• Automobile Manufacturing: In partnership with Toyota, Fujitsu utilizes digital annealing technology to calculate real-time traffic routes, effectively reducing logistics costs and improving operational efficiency.

Hartmut Neven, founder of Google Quantum AI, pointed out that the release of the Willow chip marks a significant step forward for commercially viable quantum computing. While the technology is still in its early stages, it lays a solid foundation for solving real-world problems in the future.

The Threat of Quantum Computing to Cryptocurrencies

As quantum computing continues to evolve, it presents unprecedented challenges to the security of cryptocurrencies. Currently, most cryptocurrencies depend on traditional public-key encryption methods, such as Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) and the SHA-256 hashing function. However, the immense computational power of quantum computers can potentially undermine these existing encryption standards entirely.

1.The Risk of Public-Key Encryption Decryption

• Traditional public-key encryption methods, such as RSA and ECC, depend on the computational difficulty of problems like prime factorization and discrete logarithms to ensure security.
• Quantum computing’s Shor’s Algorithm can solve these problems exponentially faster, rendering current encryption methods vulnerable. This could potentially enable hackers to bypass security measures, gaining access to users’ private keys and compromising their digital assets.

2.The Risk of Hash Algorithms

• Bitcoin’s proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism relies on the SHA-256 hashing function to ensure transaction integrity.
• Quantum computing’s Grover’s Algorithm can speed up the process of cracking SHA-256 by a square root factor. While this is not as catastrophic as Shor’s Algorithm on public-key encryption, it could still weaken the security of cryptocurrencies.

3.Transaction Security Issues

• Transaction details are publicly recorded on the blockchain in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Hackers could leverage quantum computing to break the private keys of transactions that have not yet been confirmed, enabling them to initiate unauthorized transactions.
• This “attack-first, confirm-later” vulnerability puts digital assets at risk and could undermine the overall integrity and trustworthiness of the blockchain network.

According to a report from the Hudson Institute, if quantum computers succeed in breaking Bitcoin’s security, it could result in over $3 trillion in market losses, potentially causing turmoil in global financial markets. This risk will only grow as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to gain mainstream adoption as investment assets. However, research indicates that a quantum computer powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s encryption is still at least a decade away. Despite this, the threat remains a long-term concern. If the Bitcoin development community fails to update its security protocols in time, it could face significant risks in the future. While cryptocurrencies’ current cryptographic techniques remain effective in traditional computing environments, the computational power of quantum computers could eventually disrupt this balance.

Strategies and Directions for Cryptocurrencies in Response to Quantum Computing

As quantum computing advances, the cryptocurrency community and research institutions are actively exploring strategies to safeguard digital assets and ensure the stable development of blockchain technology. These strategies include upgrading cryptographic techniques, enhancing blockchain protocols, strengthening transaction security measures, establishing regulations and standards, and creating long-term monitoring and collaboration frameworks.

Developing Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)

As previously mentioned, given that current encryption technologies (such as RSA and ECC) could be compromised by quantum computers, the development of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) has become a central focus. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is leading efforts to establish post-quantum cryptography standards, which include:

• Lattice-based encryption: Techniques like Kyber and NTRU, which leverage lattice theory to provide security, have been selected by NIST as post-quantum cryptographic standards.
• Hash-based encryption: An example is SPHINCS+, which is well-suited for digital signatures and provides robust protection against quantum computing attacks.
• Multivariate polynomial encryption: This approach relies on the complexity of solving multivariate polynomial equations to maintain security.

Upgrading Blockchain Protocols and Integrating Technologies

In addition to developing new cryptographic techniques, blockchain protocols must be upgraded to meet the security demands of the quantum era. Major blockchain projects are currently exploring the following technologies:

• Bitcoin: The community is investigating how to integrate post-quantum signatures (such as Lamport signatures and Winternitz signatures) into the Bitcoin network to ensure transaction security.
• Ethereum: Researching zero-knowledge proof technologies like zk-SNARKs and STARKs, which will enhance privacy and reduce dependence on traditional cryptographic techniques.
• Quantum-Resistant Blockchain: Projects such as Quantum-Resistant Ledger (QRL) and QANplatform are focused on developing blockchain technologies resistant to quantum attacks, safeguarding the security of transactions and data at the architectural level.
• Optimizing Blockchain Consensus Mechanisms: The introduction of new consensus algorithms, like quantum-resistant Proof of Stake (PoS), aims to ensure the long-term stability and security of decentralized systems in the face of quantum threats.

Strengthening Transaction and Private Key Security

Given the potential of quantum computers to undermine traditional cryptography, it is crucial further to strengthen the security of cryptocurrency transactions and private keys.

• Multi-signature Technology: This requires multiple private keys to authorize a transaction, enhancing security and minimizing the risk of single-point vulnerabilities.
• Threshold Signature Scheme (TSS): This approach divides the private key into several parts, distributed across multiple devices. This makes it more difficult for hackers to compromise a single key using quantum computing.
• Reducing Transaction Confirmation Time: By optimizing network efficiency, the time it takes to confirm transactions can be shortened, thus reducing the exposure window for private keys on the network.

Establishing Regulations and Standards

• Development of Global Standards: Government bodies and international organizations, such as NIST and ISO, should work closely with technology companies to create unified post-quantum encryption standards. This collaborative effort will help ensure a global enhancement of security measures within the cryptocurrency market.
• Regulations for Quantum Risks: Regulatory authorities should implement guidelines that mandate cryptocurrency exchanges and wallet providers to adopt quantum-resistant mechanisms. These regulations will be crucial in safeguarding investors’ interests.

Conclusion

The development of quantum computing has reached a pivotal stage, with Google’s Willow chip bringing us closer to the quantum era. While this marks a technological leap, it also poses a significant threat to the security of cryptocurrencies and financial systems. Experts predict that quantum computers that break Bitcoin’s encryption may still be 10 to 20 years away, but the race is already underway. Arthur Herman, a researcher at the Hudson Institute, has warned that quantum hacking attacks are akin to a ticking time bomb. Once they occur, they could result in losses of up to $3 trillion in market value and potentially trigger a financial crisis. As Bitcoin’s value approaches $100,000, it becomes a more attractive target for hackers. It will be crucial for the blockchain community, academic institutions, and government regulators to collaborate on advancing post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and upgrading existing blockchain infrastructure, thus safeguarding digital assets. In this race against time, those taking proactive steps will be best positioned to thrive in the quantum era.