Bitcoin Cycles Persist, but the Drivers Are Changing

The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Persists, but the Underlying Logic Has Changed

On December 14, Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, explained in a recent interview that Bitcoin’s familiar four-year market cycle remains intact. However, the core drivers have shifted and are no longer focused solely on block reward halvings.

(Source: scottmelker)

He emphasized that the market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 clearly demonstrated cyclical patterns. Yet, today’s market environment has fundamentally changed.

Institutions Now Set the Tempo for the Crypto Market

Thielen identified the most significant shift in the Bitcoin market: institutional investors have overtaken retail participants as the dominant force. These investors make decisions with greater caution and are more attuned to macroeconomic trends and policy signals. As a result, capital flows are no longer chasing short-term sentiment but are guided by disciplined allocation strategies.

Liquidity Remains the Key Driver for Market Direction

Although the Federal Reserve has recently begun cutting interest rates, Bitcoin’s price has not surged into a strong uptrend as in previous cycles. Thielen attributes this to several factors:

• Federal Reserve policy signals remain inconsistent and uncertain
• Overall market liquidity has not significantly improved
• Capital inflows have slowed, undermining the momentum needed for sustained price breakouts

In this landscape, the market lacks the structural strength for a rapid rally.

Short-Term Volatility and Consolidation Are More Likely

Given current conditions, Thielen believes that unless liquidity meaningfully loosens, Bitcoin is more likely to remain range-bound or consolidate rather than quickly enter a new parabolic rally. He also notes that market cycles persist, but the pace has slowed. Price movements will now depend more on macro capital conditions than on isolated events.

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Summary

Bitcoin’s long-term cyclical structure remains, but the market’s logic has clearly evolved. With institutional capital taking the lead, prices are no longer driven solely by the halving narrative. Instead, macro policy and liquidity conditions now play a deeper role. Until the capital environment meaningfully loosens, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a phase of consolidation and volatility. A sustained bull market will require renewed structural momentum.