XRP Tests Critical 50-Week Moving Average as 75% Decline Pattern Emerges

2026-01-20 13:44:47

⬤ XRP has returned to a technically significant zone as its price interacts with the 50-week simple moving average on the weekly chart. This moving average has repeatedly played a central role in defining XRP’s major market cycles. The chart highlights several historical periods where price moved below the 50-week SMA, attempted to reclaim it from underneath, failed, and then experienced extended declines.

⬤ The pattern clearly shows prior cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022. In each instance, XRP broke below the 50-week SMA, briefly consolidated or retested the level, and then continued lower over the following months. The chart shows drawdowns of approximately 75% in the 2015 cycle, about 86% following the 2018 peak, and roughly 69% after the 2022 structure. These moves occurred after the moving average shifted from support into resistance.

The 50-week SMA has functioned as a long-term trend filter rather than a short-term trading signal across multiple cycles.

⬤ Right now, XRP is once again positioned below the 50-week SMA, with the indicator acting as overhead resistance. The consistency of this pattern across multiple cycles shows the 50-week SMA has worked as a reliable long-term trend marker. When XRP trades below this level, downside pressure has tended to stick around until something fundamentally changes in market structure. Previous cycles show that real recovery typically starts only after the moving average is reclaimed and held, making the current setup a key reference point for anyone watching longer-term trends.

XRP-4,88%

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