The big whale's move is quite interesting. A certain wallet completed a large rebalancing operation within 7 hours, converting all 14,145.93 ETH into 492.16 BTC, with a total value of $44.195 million. The data details are quite meticulous—this batch of BTC has an average cost basis of $89,796.47, with an unrealized profit of $213,000. Currently, the ETH originated entirely from funds received by this wallet from three different addresses over the past two weeks. These addresses were all established back in early 2022, with an entry price of about $2,916. At the time of the rebalancing, ETH was priced at $3,125.68, meaning this ETH has already yielded significant profits since its acquisition. But the whale's decision to shift chips from Ethereum to Bitcoin now is worth pondering—are they optimistic about BTC's short-term performance, or are they adjusting their asset allocation? The subtle shifts in market sentiment are sometimes reflected in such large-scale rebalancing actions.

Recently, news from India has been flooding the headlines, and the riot at the Chhattisgarh mining area seems like a social issue. However, if you haven't sensed the market risks within the crypto space, you might be digging your own grave. The incident itself is serious, but that's not the main point. What truly requires vigilance is that geopolitical turmoil in mining regions can directly impact the crypto industry’s supply chain. This is not alarmist talk but a market law that has been validated countless times. Why should you pay attention? Because in the cost structure of crypto mining, industrial metals account for a significant proportion. Core raw materials like lithium and cobalt, essential for new energy and mining hardware manufacturing, can cause supply chain disruptions if their main producing regions fall into turmoil. The last time a lithium mine strike in South America occurred, it directly led to a 20% increase in mining hardware brand prices, and the Bitcoin network’s total hash rate experienced noticeable fluctuations in the following days. During that period, short-term traders chasing high prices got caught, ultimately suffering from supply chain risks. The chain reaction of mineral region unrest is as follows: first, industrial metal prices rise → mining hardware costs increase → small mining farms face operational pressure → some hash power exits or is forced to shut down → the hash rate concentration of large mining farms further increases. This process may seem slow, but for investors holding large amounts of top-tier cryptocurrencies, increased network centralization means higher network risk, often accompanied by short-term price volatility. Another often overlooked perspective is geopolitical premium. When a major mineral-producing region experiences instability, the market will worry about the stability of the related supply chain. This concern gradually propagates into commodity futures, subsequently affecting the valuation logic of crypto assets. Especially for smaller coins highly dependent on industrial metals, they may enter a correction phase earlier. Therefore, the key operational advice is: pay attention to geopolitical risks in major global mineral regions. This isn’t about daily news surfing but about establishing a basic risk framework—when you hear about instability in an important mining area, ask yourself three questions: Which industrial metals’ supply could be affected? How much will mining hardware costs increase? How dependent are your holdings on these metals? The crypto market is never an isolated financial game; it is deeply embedded in the global supply chain and geopolitical chessboard. Being able to understand these invisible risks is often more valuable than spending hours staring at candlestick charts.

People with money are the most likely to hit a wall, not because they lack opportunities, but because they lack discipline. That summer of 2016, I was still busy at a night market stall, dealing with the smell of oil fumes, only able to rest around 2 or 3 a.m. until I read an article about Bitcoin, and suddenly I felt struck by lightning. That’s when I realized—without taking risks, life will never have any surprises. I grit my teeth and started trading with the 30,000 yuan I had saved up over three years, and everyone around me thought I was crazy. Looking back now, in these eight years, I’ve grown my principal to five million yuan and bought three houses. It’s not luck; it’s because I’ve stepped on too many pits and summarized a way of life. **1. After a rapid rise, slow decline—don’t rush to sell off—this is usually the market maker eating up chips at low levels** After BTC’s price skyrocketed, it began to slowly retreat, and many people would panic and sell quickly. Actually, most of the time this isn’t a crash, but funds quietly accumulating at the bottom. I experienced this early in my career. In 2017, Bitcoin surged from $5,000 to nearly $20,000, then started to drag and fall. Seeing my account shrink, I couldn’t resist and cleared all my positions. A few weeks later, a new wave of market activity began. I later realized that market oscillations are like breathing—small fluctuations don’t require overreaction every time. **2. After a big drop, a weak rebound—don’t try to catch the bottom—be careful of market makers offloading** After a sudden dump, the rebound often lacks strength; it’s probably big players selling off. Trying to buy the dip at this point is like catching a flying knife. On that "Black Thursday" in 2020, Bitcoin halved in one day, and the market was in chaos. Some people thought it was cheap and rushed in, only to get trapped badly. **3. Don’t act rashly during sideways consolidation—wait for signals before entering** When the price oscillates within a range repeatedly, it indicates a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This tests your patience—don’t trade frequently just out of boredom, as trading fees and emotional tolls can be significant. **4. When breaking through key levels, chase but set stop-losses** Sometimes the price breaks previous highs or important support levels, which usually signals the formation of a new trend. But only if you know where your loss threshold is—stop-losses must be firm. **5. When news and technical signals conflict, trust the technicals** Various positive and negative news flood the market, but the candlestick charts won’t lie. They directly reflect the real flow of funds. **6. Don’t be too greedy when making profits, don’t hold on stubbornly when losing** This is the most obvious feeling in this industry. When you see profits, you want to double them, but end up giving it all back. When losing, you think about recovering, but the hole only gets bigger. Set profit targets and take profits; accept losses and cut losses—this is more important than anything. Trading is a psychological game. Tools and knowledge are not the hardest part; controlling your desires is. Over these eight years, I’ve seen too many people make big money and then lose it all—not because their methods were wrong, but because they lost their composure at critical moments. I hope my story can help friends avoid some detours.